Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdef0ca8d4240fb9ad56025f7d0f92f075149da1d6b979b9cffd7ac8ff302c5ae

Rebuilt 2 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 26, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $395,193
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $182,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $395,193 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	4c	38,898$1,617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,616.97	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	17,971$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.5	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	17,213$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.37	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	15,750$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.23	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	12,213$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.93	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f3…ada9backed Yes	0c	9,715$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	9cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	3c	9,018$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.83	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	3c	8,686$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.04	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	5c	7,993$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.92	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	1c	7,547$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.8	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	7c	7,173$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.7	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	3c	6,050$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.08	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	5,458$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.11	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	2c	5,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	3,884$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.3	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed Yes	3c	3,843$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.29	66	15.2%10 W · 56 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	1c	3,621$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.86	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	1c	3,401$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.19	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	3,024$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.31	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	15c	2,977$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.39	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	3c	2,700$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.47	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes	1c	2,637$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.19	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes	3c	2,282$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.11	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+246%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc63…c2f4backed Yes	1c	2,253$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb169…7aa7backed Yes	3c	1,805$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.1	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	7c	1,766$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.86	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No	79c	1,717$1,349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$367.34	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	7c	1,658$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.29	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	1c	1,561$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.17	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6b…23b0backed Yes	1c	1,554$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.31	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+153.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	1,534$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.51	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	8c	1,500$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	3c	1,489$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.36	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	1,396$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.81	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes	1c	1,377$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.28	64	31.3%20 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	5c	1,370$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	1,315$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.15	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	4c	1,261$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.97	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	2c	1,202$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	3c	1,167$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes	11c	1,075$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.28	84	13.1%11 W · 73 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	5c	1,040$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.67	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	1c	1,028$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes	7c	1,008$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.1	92	29.3%27 W · 65 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f19…af6bbacked Yes	4c	1,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	4c	1,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.25	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	3c	999.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	2c	950$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Yes	3c	920.62$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.82	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	11c	886.58$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes	4c	880$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	67	17.9%12 W · 55 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+22%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb438…b113backed Yes	10c	846.01$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.41	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	24cpaid	-74%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4340…0202backed Yes	3c	843.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.36	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	7c	838$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6fb…32e7backed Yes	17c	811.41$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.2	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0783…dd27backed Yes	10c	793.37$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.88	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	3c	784.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed9d…fb9fbacked Yes	3c	775.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d67…81f2backed Yes	9c	749.99$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.25	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+475.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	16c	696.41$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.81	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	53c	677.08$357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ecb…e7d8backed Yes	11c	673.27$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-26%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a0…dab5backed No	75c	650$489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.55	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	2c	619.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a2…9b3fbacked Yes	2c	618.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	6c	598.94$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.63	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x360d…95cabacked Yes	3c	587.31$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No	76c	570$434 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.79	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-31%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b8…5a27backed Yes	4c	555.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed Yes	4c	518.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa52a…5b16backed Yes	2c	517$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6717…7694backed Yes	3c	493.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15f1…0593backed Yes	2c	463.63$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fe3…0a16backed Yes	6c	440.69$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.72	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdadb…184ebacked Yes	19c	402.77$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffa…336abacked Yes	8c	365.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.64	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0d2…c042backed Yes	10c	350$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	14c	336.66$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	4c	310.06$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.71	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes	28c	300$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.4	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…cf59backed Yes	19c	300$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cff…83c4backed Yes	11c	292.45$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes	4c	276$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a94…ed73backed Yes	17c	259.22$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.16per pick	28cpaid	-75%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa135…6085backed Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-47%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d7…2ee2backed Yes	5c	235.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No	70c	215.27$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.27	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcd3…a797backed Yes	7c	200.92$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xece5…bd2cbacked Yes	43c	200$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.8	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…4d45backed No	70c	200$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d9…4c05backed Yes	6c	192.84$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	10c	189.68$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.55	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked No	75c	133.84$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.84	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…5acfbacked Yes	18c	113.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.14	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f92…df1dbacked Yes	18c	107.95$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	19c	103.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6d7…bd8ebacked Yes	19c	103.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	41c	99.96$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.48	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event