Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f3131ca0beeecb338abd0ef4f465be009653fa00324ad9328226abe74717dc9

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 26, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $240,046
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $100,057

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,046 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	3c	30,000$933 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$933	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	18,694$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.69	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	18c	10,050$1,792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,791.61	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	7,979$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.85	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	13c	6,351$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$854.8	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,850$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.06	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes	1c	4,072$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.79	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+61%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	16c	3,884$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627.25	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	7c	3,800$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes	5c	3,127$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.64	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+246%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	3,003$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.04	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	1c	3,002$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.64	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	3c	3,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	4c	3,000$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.85	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	76c	2,825$2,147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$677.5	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	2,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	2c	2,375$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.78	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	11c	2,271$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.4	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	10c	2,178$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.02	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes	1c	2,121$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.87	84	13.1%11 W · 73 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	18c	2,036$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.19	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	23c	2,000$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.5	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4340…0202backed Yes	1c	2,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	22c	1,843$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.22	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	3c	1,445$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.48	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	15c	1,364$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes	1c	1,318$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.18	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15f1…0593backed Yes	5c	1,104$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe09a…d020backed Yes	14c	1,056$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.14	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	16c	1,044$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.3	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes	14c	1,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe530…a2cabacked Yes	25c	910.75$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	22c	865.95$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.53	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	750.73$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.18	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	5c	708.49$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	9c	703.24$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.91	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	6c	692.87$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.67	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes	17c	601.43$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	28c	600.79$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.54	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	9c	600$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.32	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes	3c	580.46$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.96	218	10.1%22 W · 196 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	20c	508.54$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	14c	500$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	21c	487.13$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.54	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	29c	454.56$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64e3…e3f5backed Yes	4c	449.59$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbffa…336abacked Yes	22c	402.17$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x097d…83f6backed No	78c	401.94$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.93	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b58…53fdbacked Yes	5c	400$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	8c	380$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.9	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed No	80c	344.29$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.15	66	15.2%10 W · 56 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe69e…61d2backed Yes	30c	333.87$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	8c	318.25$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbe5…18d8backed Yes	28c	285.97$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.35	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed Yes	21c	243.14$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.88	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0783…dd27backed Yes	20c	200$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.3	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes	23c	197.82$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes	13c	187$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.98	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9376…1655backed Yes	14c	157.14$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	157	17.8%28 W · 129 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c37…f2ffbacked Yes	23c	130.43$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.17per pick	26cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No	78c	130$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.6	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	75cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No	76c	126.4$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.59	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	74cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	19c	120$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21d9…797cbacked Yes	18c	120$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…3da3backed Yes	26c	100$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb3…4393backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	138	21.7%30 W · 108 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0702…d5f9backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	27cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdc…0658backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	26c	96.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	12c	90$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x45a1…d54abacked Yes	19c	80.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2c…8258backed Yes	13c	80$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	22c	70$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fa5…4f1abacked Yes	15c	67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	77c	53$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.96	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7965…e542backed Yes	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19d3…a690backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+369.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5d9…4c05backed Yes	25c	49.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.09	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event