Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aede5fbe88ea876bcc54eb838280d86feb472f165457c8138d073300fd9c37e

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 26, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $198,434
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $88,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,434 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	36,386$786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$785.6	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes	0c	11,389$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.74	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	8,201$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.66	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	6,709$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.92	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	17c	6,000$1,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,036.58	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	0c	5,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	4,147$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	7c	3,900$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.44	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,517$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	2c	3,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	23c	2,073$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.51	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	19c	1,700$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.56	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	78c	1,406$1,102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.17	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,250$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	18c	1,045$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.1	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	79c	1,040$824 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.2	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	2c	999.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	20c	945.59$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.12	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44eb…e2b1backed Yes	17c	869.47$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	12	25%3 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbffa…336abacked Yes	5c	755.89$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.22	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	2c	672$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	12c	544.8$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.17	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	13c	500$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	499$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes	21c	476.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	15c	475$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…5fc5backed Yes	18c	430$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	11c	400$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	5c	394.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	10c	352.69$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fb…32e7backed Yes	8c	253.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	17c	200.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.58	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b58…53fdbacked Yes	9c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	16c	180$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1734…ddd4backed No	80c	179.72$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.94	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c37…f2ffbacked Yes	18c	169.28$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.17per pick	26cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	13c	150.02$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.39	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd037…15aebacked Yes	21c	149.86$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.47	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a6…a0c3backed Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes	20c	122.71$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfac2…3340backed Yes	17c	118.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c5…b378backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	14c	110$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf142…02c3backed Yes	20c	102.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes	18c	101$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.18	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff5d…251cbacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fc4…b930backed Yes	18c	92.86$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe09a…d020backed Yes	21c	91$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.11	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	18c	89.95$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.89	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe7a0…f9d6backed Yes	17c	87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2c…8258backed Yes	19c	80$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafb9…190dbacked Yes	16c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	23cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7381…b54bbacked Yes	17c	70$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93ff…aff8backed Yes	18c	70$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+10%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7000…cde2backed Yes	19c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-65.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x961c…f93dbacked Yes	19c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7a0…b833backed Yes	19c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	78c	50.4$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.91	797	35.9%286 W · 511 L	-34.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0570…f927backed No	76c	45.83$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No	77c	22.94$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.34	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	75cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event