Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97c90c603a2e4261d2277fb00a5f4176ee7caaa8aaa9fc6986ec3ee865c2b38f

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 26, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $180,411
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,016

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,411 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	42,500$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,886$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	5,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	4,625$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.5	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	7c	3,900$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.36	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	21c	2,197$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	16c	1,957$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.41	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	9c	1,900$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	78c	1,507$1,174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.24	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	21c	1,500$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.65	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed Yes	2c	1,417$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.57	66	15.2%10 W · 56 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,087$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.77	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes	9c	1,055$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.19	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+246%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	79c	974.35$774 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.03	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	16c	900$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	8c	880.58$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.58	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	577.34$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44eb…e2b1backed Yes	4c	463.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	25%3 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	10c	459.55$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.09	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	16c	450$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.3	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	16c	449.93$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.99	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	4c	415.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	18c	387.37$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.03	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…5fc5backed Yes	18c	250$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes	17c	250$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	10c	236.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.66	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes	18c	222.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b58…53fdbacked Yes	9c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No	79c	200$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	74cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	12c	150.01$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.71	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.29	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes	14c	143$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	15c	135$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No	79c	125$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.25	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59ef…5191backed Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd037…15aebacked Yes	21c	121.9$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfac2…3340backed Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a6…a0c3backed Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe50c…c556backed Yes	23c	112.22$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.81	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c5…b378backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fc4…b930backed Yes	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	18c	90$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe7a0…f9d6backed Yes	17c	86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2c…8258backed Yes	15c	80$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbffa…336abacked Yes	15c	71.17$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93ff…aff8backed Yes	16c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+10%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafb9…190dbacked Yes	16c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	23cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7000…cde2backed Yes	17c	60$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-65.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a0…b833backed Yes	17c	60$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No	80c	44.9$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	75cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event