Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf08dd215408ff2db4d5654e2b8a4c00d7f16c66e77f0e8c195df057e56d43d2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 37c | 10,060$3,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,291.08 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 18c | 6,618$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,424.09 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 0c | 5,989$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 44c | 4,113$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.73 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 1c | 3,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 4c | 1,985$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.41 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6950…b32abacked Yes | 20c | 1,004$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ff…7840backed Yes | 65c | 1,002$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 25c | 1,000$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 2c | 986.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1,201.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 16c | 810$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 78c | 787.25$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…f720backed Yes | 18c | 676.29$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 13c | 573.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 11c | 524.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.12 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…610ebacked Yes | 6c | 466.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 13cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 80c | 414.89$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.3 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…721cbacked Yes | 5c | 396.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 4c | 370$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +230.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 67c | 320.15$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.91 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…3005backed Yes | 19c | 307.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…2f2abacked Yes | 17c | 271.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +194.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 21c | 249.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.91 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 68c | 206.42$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…d5f9backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +203.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7d…91f5backed Yes | 11c | 183.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a7…64bfbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…672bbacked Yes | 8c | 139.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…3758backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 54c | 88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…7155backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c21…15b7backed Yes | 24c | 61.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +310.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb9…edc4backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 64c | 31.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 56c | 21.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 75c | 18.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor?this page
- Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.