Middle East · resolved market
Will Netanyahu say "Iran" 25+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f2a6a8c92debe82571260c9e4a37c5b1766db805fc6540652dc7c253aa60f5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 52c | 2,745$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.6 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 48c | 1,031$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.23 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8340backed No | 63c | 971.16$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 45c | 837.87$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.05 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 48c | 799.99$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed No | 51c | 749.65$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.16 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 38c | 665.97$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.07 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 45c | 599.59$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 33c | 411.29$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.49 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 54c | 370.3$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.77 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…d218backed Yes | 39c | 349.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…d5f9backed Yes | 46c | 303.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 55c | 275.67$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 56c | 258.32$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.93 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 43c | 256.65$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 36c | 240$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 41c | 230.64$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 45c | 227.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 45c | 223.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.19 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd203…53a2backed No | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 69c | 216.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…4070backed Yes | 49c | 207.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…abbbbacked No | 49c | 203.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked Yes | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed No | 52c | 191.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 54cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 58c | 190.54$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 54c | 185.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…d65abacked No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 55c | 181.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…ffe6backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 30c | 143.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x17e8…1031backed No | 63c | 134.92$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…500bbacked No | 59c | 125$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 45c | 117.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 61c | 101.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -7.3wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…c8ddbacked Yes | 69c | 98.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…1630backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…e1f3backed No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 50c | 70.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15f1…0593backed Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99f…4400backed No | 45c | 67.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1d…52f1backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 31c | 46.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 38c | 41.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…0b30backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 68c | 36.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 39c | 36.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 45c | 30.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee7f…93c1backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd32…ab3dbacked Yes | 53c | 28.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ff…f89bbacked No | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98b…dd05backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…e2febacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netanyahu say "Iran" 25+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?this page
- Will Netanyahu say "Abraham Accord" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Antisemitic" or "Antisemitism" 5+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Goon" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Hamas" 15+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Hostage" 3+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Human Shield" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Israel" 50+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "October 7" or "October 7th" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Palau" or "Paraguay" or "Hungary" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Palestine" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Proxy" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Qatar" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Slander" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Trump" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Yemen" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.