Middle East · resolved market
Will Netanyahu say "Palau" or "Paraguay" or "Hungary" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x209e06b2653493b728ebf34c7492781ee761cf2a5eca4d7d63045d23cc92dec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc282…d218backed Yes | 41c | 540.86$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 42c | 249.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d3…0ac9backed No | 59c | 221.87$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ba…9d46backed Yes | 46c | 109.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked No | 59c | 89.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 60c | 86.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…175dbacked No | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 39c | 52.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 62c | 45.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…1630backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…382abacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked Yes | 39c | 31.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…79adbacked No | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 41c | 25.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked No | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netanyahu say "Palau" or "Paraguay" or "Hungary" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?this page
- Will Netanyahu say "Abraham Accord" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Antisemitic" or "Antisemitism" 5+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Goon" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Hamas" 15+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Hostage" 3+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Human Shield" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Iran" 25+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Israel" 50+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "October 7" or "October 7th" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Palestine" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Proxy" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Qatar" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Slander" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Trump" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Yemen" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.