Middle East · resolved market
Will Netanyahu say "Hamas" 15+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45d6f8c9585f63f77d1abb05b7e62364b04768f6ae48e5ccaaba57d1ee5a128b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +9.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 78c | 928.28$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.22 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 34c | 830.57$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.38 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 65c | 776.35$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.72 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 30c | 689.01$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.14 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 31c | 682.54$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.23 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 70c | 570.51$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.51 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 67c | 543$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.49 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 33c | 349.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 34c | 299.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 54cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed No | 32c | 249.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 73c | 214.58$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…9b3fbacked Yes | 66c | 200$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 65c | 181$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 67c | 163.35$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +116%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 34c | 154.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 66c | 152$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 67c | 148.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 58c | 139.79$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 134$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…8568backed Yes | 76c | 132.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 68c | 128.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -7.3wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x15f1…0593backed Yes | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 35c | 88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 33c | 82.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 67c | 74.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1d…52f1backed No | 28c | 71.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c7…9c32backed No | 47c | 62.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…d7ccbacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…1630backed Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd99f…4400backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 71c | 56.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 67c | 56.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…4808backed Yes | 71c | 54.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…b81bbacked Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 64c | 48.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 25c | 42.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 36c | 34.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b2…a51abacked Yes | 70c | 28.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98b…dd05backed Yes | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…029abacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fed…3b22backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ff…f89bbacked Yes | 70c | 17.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e99…9206backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netanyahu say "Hamas" 15+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?this page
- Will Netanyahu say "Abraham Accord" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Antisemitic" or "Antisemitism" 5+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Goon" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Hostage" 3+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Human Shield" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Iran" 25+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Israel" 50+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "October 7" or "October 7th" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Palau" or "Paraguay" or "Hungary" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Palestine" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Proxy" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Qatar" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Slander" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?No won
- Will Netanyahu say "Trump" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
- Will Netanyahu say "Yemen" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.