Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebcba0d0b58a5a34fd600be94363040184caf7029f12d9eb57e52d53ee0983c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.89 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 12c | 754.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 22c | 646.14$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 633.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 11c | 530.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed Yes | 20c | 427.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a0…5254backed No | 79c | 401.25$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b8…50b5backed No | 77c | 367.88$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 19c | 361.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 314$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 280$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 23c | 268.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 21c | 249.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 21c | 244.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 240.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 77c | 233.69$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…8bc2backed Yes | 24c | 222.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 221.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 20c | 204.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 11c | 199.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…d401backed Yes | 18c | 184.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 19c | 171.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…66cabacked Yes | 29c | 169.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 164.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes | 13c | 164$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 19c | 153.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 13c | 149.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 28c | 142.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e2…358ebacked Yes | 14c | 137.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 136.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 132$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e7…bda3backed No | 78c | 128.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 15c | 120.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 12c | 120.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 18c | 105.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…d852backed Yes | 19c | 102.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes | 17c | 80.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 79c | 73.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 70.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb78…adbbbacked Yes | 29c | 70.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386a…f453backed Yes | 17c | 65.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…61d2backed Yes | 35c | 62.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 61.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 25c | 60.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a68…9046backed No | 80c | 57.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 25c | 56.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…357bbacked Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 19c | 52.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 31c | 50.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 24c | 49.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 73c | 48.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 72c | 47.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 22c | 46.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 28c | 45.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x979a…468cbacked No | 70c | 37.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 37.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 79c | 31.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…06e8backed No | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -93%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…e7efbacked No | 79c | 22.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…a541backed No | 75c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.