TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Steve Lanier win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$673,149
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$653,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $673,149 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c7,407$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8649411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf17e…72bbbacked Yes4c4,393$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes23c4,235$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.3419643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No76c3,896$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.723070%21 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x230d…b468backed Yes3c3,791$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb3…47dbbacked Yes4c3,644$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e82…ce23backed Yes3c3,275$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf734…dcbdbacked Yes4c3,224$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c26…e71dbacked Yes2c3,104$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa20d…63a5backed Yes4c2,888$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb227…1f3ebacked Yes4c2,878$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1fc…2adbbacked Yes4c2,872$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0477…a92dbacked Yes4c2,830$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x683f…27dbbacked Yes4c2,782$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f67…52e7backed Yes4c2,707$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…c513backed Yes3c2,707$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd34…a9a2backed Yes3c2,688$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22b1…396abacked Yes4c2,679$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbad…683dbacked Yes2c2,645$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e17…0402backed Yes4c2,616$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d1…5d0abacked Yes2c2,594$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ef1…85e0backed Yes3c2,594$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef3…3a38backed Yes4c2,469$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b6…8307backed Yes4c2,461$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…9e9abacked Yes4c2,423$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabd0…3dcabacked Yes2c2,402$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aaa…f418backed Yes4c2,346$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x936a…50bfbacked Yes4c2,310$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f4…0ef9backed Yes4c2,291$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a5…7749backed Yes2c2,280$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4526…3ad1backed Yes2c2,276$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071b…1b79backed Yes4c2,246$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e59…6e4ebacked Yes4c2,234$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…1613backed Yes4c2,228$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41db…601bbacked Yes4c2,222$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9113…0a59backed Yes4c2,166$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe04d…b74dbacked Yes4c2,157$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe3…65a2backed Yes4c2,150$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a4…d8ccbacked Yes3c2,144$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f54…ef70backed Yes4c2,144$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c8…30afbacked Yes4c2,142$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0384…6a9fbacked Yes4c2,135$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0953…123bbacked Yes4c2,123$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10bf…fa7fbacked Yes3c2,104$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ef…fd4fbacked Yes2c2,097$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bd0…a9c6backed Yes4c2,062$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcce7…692ebacked Yes4c2,052$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06f5…878dbacked Yes4c2,018$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf96a…de5dbacked Yes4c1,946$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ae…9224backed Yes4c1,917$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fd3…8e25backed Yes2c1,835$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1854…7837backed Yes4c1,825$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed9b…ba1cbacked Yes4c1,822$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58bb…ab95backed Yes4c1,820$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc0…83d7backed Yes4c1,810$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68cc…c7d5backed Yes4c1,806$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x127a…bd94backed Yes4c1,766$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfd…ce2fbacked Yes4c1,759$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…fb71backed Yes4c1,726$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d28…b6b7backed Yes4c1,702$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe05…4ee4backed Yes4c1,696$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a6…cb34backed Yes2c1,664$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf245…7f96backed Yes3c1,660$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9add…f7e1backed Yes4c1,635$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8647…3e4dbacked Yes4c1,633$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd883…2c19backed Yes4c1,572$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3380…0338backed Yes4c1,565$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c6b…9246backed Yes4c1,564$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf8…a004backed Yes4c1,559$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e95…d59ebacked Yes3c1,553$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0f6…447cbacked Yes3c1,530$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a3…a972backed Yes4c1,511$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc982…009bbacked Yes4c1,492$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0f3…a0c5backed Yes4c1,488$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ace…9978backed Yes4c1,483$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e61…a3ebbacked Yes4c1,482$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6695…6411backed Yes4c1,480$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4040…237bbacked Yes4c1,467$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71b9…25b9backed Yes4c1,461$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef77…e829backed Yes4c1,455$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc092…5760backed Yes2c1,424$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9011…8a3abacked Yes4c1,399$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe18c…dc9cbacked Yes4c1,392$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b6e…4f68backed Yes4c1,369$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc80c…d966backed Yes4c1,366$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cca…f8e1backed Yes4c1,360$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1785…ec39backed Yes4c1,360$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ac9…7f22backed Yes4c1,343$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1990…a1ccbacked Yes4c1,281$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4c…87a8backed Yes3c1,263$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe335…e799backed Yes4c1,258$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a23…3e66backed Yes4c1,255$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f8d…188abacked Yes4c1,252$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f09…af8ebacked Yes4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x265c…7e6bbacked Yes3c1,245$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x62cf…9f15backed Yes4c1,244$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa4d…d270backed Yes3c1,230$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac65…4ebfbacked Yes4c1,203$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a4…30dfbacked Yes3c1,195$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcac…f9d0backed Yes3c1,157$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.