Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Doug Turner win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aeca7273eaaa4a8d51747d349811f6bab5638ccf9fcebc364be9c3ea26775e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 23c | 12,374$2,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,846.78 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 3,891$2,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.67 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 4c | 2,907$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 22c | 1,997$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.35 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 77c | 1,038$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.38 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,012$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.13 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 9c | 991.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed No | 79c | 691.4$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 614.37$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.16 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 514$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.49 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 426$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 364$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.05 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 349.98$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked No | 76c | 340$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…5db4backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 23c | 217.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 78c | 205.92$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 205.57$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 17c | 203.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 22c | 177.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 167.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 149.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 15c | 129$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 24c | 92.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 92.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 25c | 71.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 67.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 19c | 59.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb015…42c3backed Yes | 23c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 75c | 26.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 75cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8634…1b5bbacked No | 77c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 77cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Doug Turner win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will Belinda Robertson win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?Yes won
- Will John Sanchez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Judith Nakamura win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Mark Murphy win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Steve Lanier win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Susana Martinez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.