Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c048cf588a0127e8591f98c08f84dd23685def967bd60338703260c5fb32669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 6c | 4,355$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.33 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,199$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 67c | 1,087$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.45 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 17c | 1,046$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.87 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Yes | 5c | 942.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 23c | 924.61$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.72 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 19c | 719.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…fed7backed Yes | 39c | 596.7$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 41c | 457.16$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.36 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429f…42f8backed No | 77c | 456.52$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 80c | 363.01$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e9…dcf1backed Yes | 8c | 276$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…6c88backed Yes | 23c | 239.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c14…821ebacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 196.94$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 52c | 191.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5092…86c3backed Yes | 27c | 182.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 32c | 181.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 9c | 178.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes | 19c | 175.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 169.5$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 166$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 22c | 153.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 61c | 152$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 149.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 71c | 137.44$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 34c | 133$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…ee01backed Yes | 10c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 79c | 94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 29c | 80.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 79.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 24c | 72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…0b64backed No | 68c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 31c | 67.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 66c | 65.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 60.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 51c | 59.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 50.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 29c | 42.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 54c | 42.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…ab37backed No | 65c | 41.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 67c | 39.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 32c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…3ad8backed No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…2089backed No | 66c | 37.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…6946backed No | 51c | 34.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…d9fabacked No | 69c | 28.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed No | 65c | 27.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe751…5a2abacked No | 72c | 18.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked No | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will Belinda Robertson win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Doug Turner win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?Yes won
- Will John Sanchez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Judith Nakamura win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Mark Murphy win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Steve Lanier win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Susana Martinez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.