Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74e889ae900369de63774bf2ff1eca10ccc3e0295301425f6b4e32f4399aeec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 16c | 2,481$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.56 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 4c | 1,029$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +144%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5e…37b3backed Yes | 18c | 979.07$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.72 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 28c | 648.1$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.34 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 13c | 639.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 139 | 19.4%27 W · 112 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 577.86$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.08 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 56c | 487.88$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 68c | 472$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.28 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 12c | 416.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 43c | 309.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 28c | 292$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…8573backed Yes | 14c | 240.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 49c | 219.88$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 59c | 213.83$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa056…0f70backed Yes | 59c | 199.9$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 50c | 198.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 167.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 81 | 6.2%5 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 65c | 154.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes | 18c | 153$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 150.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 23c | 133.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 15c | 128.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 24c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 69c | 99.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 69c | 99.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 96.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 42c | 79.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 57c | 74.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 75c | 72.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 65.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 65.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f88…0111backed Yes | 47c | 60.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed Yes | 36c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 57.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 76c | 52.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…42a2backed Yes | 43c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3b…939dbacked Yes | 31c | 47.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 75c | 39.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 36c | 36.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1a…c031backed Yes | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 64c | 27.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 53c | 27.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked Yes | 57c | 26.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…6946backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 24.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 47c | 22.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 67c | 20.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?this page
- Will Chris Henry be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?No won
- Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?Yes won
- Will Nathan Sage be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.