Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebca06463a9dcfa46dce21d63313c31db6c58b9ab68c09cceb988378f9c2174f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 80c | 1,173$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.13 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 5c | 934.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 528.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 35c | 488.33$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.41 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 38c | 439$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.63 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fee…ed5ebacked Yes | 53c | 394.33$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 8c | 360.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 8c | 332.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5e…37b3backed No | 24c | 322.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 36c | 318.75$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.19 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 16c | 305.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 15c | 210$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 6c | 204.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 68c | 190.34$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 181.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 16c | 165.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 18c | 131.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 14c | 126$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 114.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 61c | 109$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked No | 33c | 104.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed No | 70c | 99.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 53c | 97.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1a…c031backed No | 51c | 97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…2759backed Yes | 58c | 85.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 45c | 85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…2089backed No | 63c | 79.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…417abacked No | 60c | 77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 68.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 66.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…9ecdbacked No | 17c | 63.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +249.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 32c | 63.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 56.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 58c | 56.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed No | 49c | 53.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…ee01backed No | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed No | 56c | 43.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked No | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 45c | 34.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 41c | 33.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 31.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 34c | 31.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 44c | 30.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f9…adb9backed Yes | 57c | 22.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +194.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…128dbacked No | 52c | 21.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3b…939dbacked Yes | 51c | 19.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…045fbacked No | 62c | 17.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdd…f434backed No | 62c | 16.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?this page
- Will Chris Henry be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?No won
- Will Nathan Sage be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?No won
- Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.