Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x117eb84791961161480d470c933d9d9ab13c1dea409f0403669b9aa27ee4995c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 39c | 1,102$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.75 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 585.87$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 73c | 552.64$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.88 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 19c | 341.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 70c | 261.65$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.14 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 249.44$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 75c | 215.89$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…8bf8backed No | 79c | 169.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 63c | 151.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked No | 69c | 142$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 37c | 121.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 41c | 115.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 78c | 111$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 36c | 108.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 28c | 104.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 11c | 91.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 79.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 72.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…76f0backed Yes | 27c | 68.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…2509backed No | 77c | 67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 60c | 66.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 18c | 66.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 62c | 65.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 24c | 65.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 41c | 62.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341a…973dbacked Yes | 52c | 58.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +74%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebaf…3235backed Yes | 28c | 57.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 38c | 52.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes | 39c | 50.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 46.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…da5dbacked Yes | 30c | 46.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcff…ab9bbacked Yes | 34c | 44.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 37c | 37.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 43c | 37.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 33.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 42c | 31.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 61c | 30.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 70c | 29.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 28.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…958bbacked Yes | 68c | 28.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29a2…1cd7backed Yes | 61c | 27.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 27.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 46c | 25.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 67c | 25.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 20.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…6f60backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 14.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.