TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,895

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,724 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes6c4,809$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.1718727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes12c2,007$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.4948331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12024010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes2c1,608$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.596313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes5c1,490$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.667229.2%21 W · 51 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes4c1,486$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4529922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes7c1,446$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.928718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6756…99abbacked Yes12c1,352$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.596526.2%17 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes8c1,255$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9631341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes2c1,228$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.475232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1646…8c61backed Yes20c1,156$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.59742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes2c1,152$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.489429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes3c996.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.121,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c941.41$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.572,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes10c926.53$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes9c924.15$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3884124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes7c888.06$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2434617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes17c838.99$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2243021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes5c836.48$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9955919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24dd…12afbacked Yes15c805.94$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.155846.6%27 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1f9…1a73backed No73c540$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.83187.1%27 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick76cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes24c502$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.497950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes21c465.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bb9…9dbabacked Yes2c454.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.924219%8 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Yes7c443.26$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.964548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+50.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes12c434.48$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.091,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes16c396.33$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes8c394.15$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6311359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes12c339.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes16c269.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes9c269.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.216036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes13c267.88$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4954037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c232.71$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed Yes24c230$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.44137.7%1 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.33per pick40cpaid-61.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x47f3…ed95backed Yes26c226.46$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1672…03f1backed Yes19c226.25$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.795635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes15c225.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.217323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes16c214.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.488,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed Yes21c212.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.64037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes20c211.95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.321,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes18c204.22$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9461659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c199.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd3…864abacked Yes13c181.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.22425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+401.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…2037backed Yes10c179.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes6c175.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8866543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes16c174.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0235432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes30c164.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes19c161.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.971,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes24c161.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.28337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes17c150.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252010%2 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-69.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes18c140$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes17c138.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2933726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes18c137.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes15c132.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes12c130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked No74c127.83$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.491241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a88…2219backed Yes15c126.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.83728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes21c126.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9129642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes32c125.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3823633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe581…8a4ebacked Yes26c124.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.811553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes20c117.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0418041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked No72c116.1$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7647834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xece5…c252backed Yes13c101$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.812065%13 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0632…4095backed Yes18c100.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1716432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes16c95.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+225.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ed9…c127backed Yes24c93.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.465056%28 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes21c89.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.85619.6%11 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc38c…fd95backed Yes23c87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.261838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ea…f29dbacked Yes21c86.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No74c80.67$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6859742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x4122…6c07backed No79c80$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.83554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed No80c80$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.414953.7%80 W · 69 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed No79c75.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.958748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes16c75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.23,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc012…543fbacked Yes28c68.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.37475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+30%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe37f…6b69backed No74c67.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.59771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+138%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes15c66.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1120144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b1…0a31backed Yes23c64.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda4e…d9e1backed Yes23c60.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cef…113cbacked Yes20c60.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c64…844fbacked Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+69%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes20c57.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5217231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa6…0062backed Yes23c56.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.532044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No79c47.62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1058349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c5e…9436backed Yes24c47.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.241241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick62cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed No80c43.56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.835453.7%29 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b28…0f58backed Yes25c42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34b9…fc5cbacked Yes30c40.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked No77c38.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7616924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a3…3c17backed No64c33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.883333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46ed…eec2backed No80c28.93$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.791258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x418f…a8f1backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43180.6%25 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick78cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.44,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae45…bb2ebacked No80c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b43…a3d4backed No79c13.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.911369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.