TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,354
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,354 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf516…1ea1backed Yes1c40,949$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.145135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6756…99abbacked Yes22c2,231$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.576526.2%17 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes22c1,477$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.2831341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed No75c1,241$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.5427047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c690.3$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.452,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes13c621.6$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.159429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4165…da31backed Yes33c582.16$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1921844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes27c509$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.081,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes21c499.97$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.997950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac8b…3b03backed Yes34c417.07$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes21c362.32$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3584124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No79c316.83$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa428…40c6backed Yes23c260$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.81361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes21c222.52$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0916036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec15…3942backed Yes23c199.65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.794032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c196.6$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No76c193.03$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3352245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c171.37$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.423,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c159.68$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes31c153.13$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.361,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x517e…4fb2backed No77c152.78$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.89076.7%69 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd09…875bbacked Yes32c149.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes35c137.93$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.313333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c135.5$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.868,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes31c134.8$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3917135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No77c132.72$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2518041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No77c130.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6521847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes12c130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe201…3f41backed No77c127.95$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.474040%16 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-30%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes24c121.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.661,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes23c120.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.182,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes34c120.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.511436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2bf…5892backed Yes24c113.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.637233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c64…844fbacked Yes19c109$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.75944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+69%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes24c103.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5254037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed No75c103.45$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.875453.7%29 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…bb0ebacked Yes36c103.15$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe581…8a4ebacked No78c102.54$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.561553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0586…7db3backed No68c102.21$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c101.34$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.437,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8171…ae24backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x968b…e4c5backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317334.2%25 W · 48 L-10.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1736123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5cc…0540backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed No71c99.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7935362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes22c99.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x252b…dfc9backed Yes27c91.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.786144.3%27 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No74c85$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0227376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed8e…07f8backed Yes28c84.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.74862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ca4…817ebacked Yes23c84.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.02333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No80c82.22$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.741,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No65c81.9$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4127335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes32c76.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.648331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d48…8d60backed Yes28c76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…dcebbacked Yes26c75.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.562133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No67c75.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1759742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes18c73.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0943021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes25c71.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.87832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes23c70$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.311835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1646…8c61backed Yes35c69.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.35742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eec…9d96backed Yes32c67.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.881942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+45.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04f1…37cdbacked Yes30c65.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd47f…b9a3backed No79c65.2$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae66…66a4backed Yes38c60.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.021030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-44.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d21…ca6dbacked Yes23c59.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4abd…cf0bbacked Yes34c57.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.431225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x95cb…5e6fbacked Yes34c53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes25c51.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0932548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b9…3296backed Yes22c51.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2111129.7%33 W · 78 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes27c51.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8433726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ed…eec2backed Yes23c49.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed No77c49.35$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3518727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Yes32c48.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.644548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+50.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x751d…9f55backed Yes25c48.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99f1…bb3abacked Yes32c47.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-82.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x018f…e8e6backed Yes36c46.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked No66c45.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.454833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a71…8dc2backed Yes26c44.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed No78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7716465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc5d6…c3efbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10296.9%2 W · 27 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x266a…b152backed No76c38.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc552…c3abbacked Yes37c36.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.592227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-54.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes35c36.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34b9…fc5cbacked Yes36c33.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39a2…00e3backed Yes30c33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.02944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+42.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No65c31.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.991967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c0c…378bbacked Yes35c29.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff05…7195backed No78c29.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacd4…888cbacked No50c28.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.22520%5 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ea…f29dbacked No73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No66c26.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0128718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No75c26.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5924966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5210…2037backed No70c26.11$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.853243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.