Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94d5c0bd4f9c05b8873d9247373daad99e3e34ca38156b2ff961a2ae890caf26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9653…6432backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 68c | 336.02$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.96 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 295.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 7c | 270$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 80c | 251.56$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 231.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 26c | 228.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 73c | 177.68$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 163.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 160$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 10c | 156.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 150.89$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 147.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 28c | 144.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 71c | 128.01$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 63c | 122.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 110.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 20c | 109$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 103.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 28c | 88.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 36c | 81.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 27c | 80.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 79c | 78.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 28c | 76.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 28c | 69.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcff…ab9bbacked Yes | 39c | 59.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8f…d33abacked Yes | 25c | 47.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 38.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 40c | 37.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 78c | 28.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 70c | 26.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…e7efbacked No | 78c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or below on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on February 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C or higher on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.