Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 65°F or below on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd18173c92d96fe72c5a25b8f128e958eaac9d08ff590693a71464c1ee62d9493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4561…1fe0backed No | 38c | 1,095$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.01 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 5c | 679.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 7c | 469.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 12c | 451.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 387.88$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 70c | 323.33$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 5c | 319.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c9…5556backed No | 8c | 300.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 10c | 253.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 230.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 49c | 180.42$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.55 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 63c | 180$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 30c | 171.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 37c | 159.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 73c | 143.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 41c | 125.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 10c | 123.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 54c | 123.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 78c | 120.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 58c | 119.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 43c | 119.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 70c | 111.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 68c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 44c | 109.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…5029backed No | 28c | 101.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 63c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 21c | 95.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked No | 43c | 93.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076b…354cbacked No | 20c | 89.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe643…4539backed Yes | 44c | 80.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 59c | 75.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed No | 14c | 75.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc5…af1cbacked Yes | 60c | 74.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 76 | 9.2%7 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 72c | 68.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e21…66c0backed No | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316c…0194backed No | 67c | 63.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 64c | 60.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 49c | 59.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 75c | 58.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea9…c83bbacked No | 47c | 49.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 23c | 46.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…cb16backed No | 46c | 45.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…d18fbacked Yes | 79c | 42.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 61c | 41.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…d382backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…4b98backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…cf0bbacked No | 44c | 36.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…e9dfbacked Yes | 56c | 36.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 31.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…d8edbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…51fabacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a1…392ebacked No | 43c | 27.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418c…6962backed Yes | 55c | 27.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2850…a9d6backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked No | 44c | 24.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…ff36backed Yes | 77c | 23.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x046e…4b45backed Yes | 79c | 23.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed Yes | 74c | 22.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…1611backed No | 50c | 21.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed Yes | 57c | 19.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 65°F or below on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.