Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24bf0c018ee6f2bc2663da44aa6b71f6e2c7dd5dfd58c2864e9c0df00aea6f6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03c4…6536backed Yes | 4c | 10,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.97 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 3,125$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.36 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 805.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 681.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 4c | 499.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 4c | 410.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 3c | 384.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4561…1fe0backed Yes | 18c | 319.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 315.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 7c | 304.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed No | 77c | 230.28$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…3a21backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 7c | 189.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8940…8506backed Yes | 8c | 180.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…9dbabacked Yes | 12c | 131.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 15c | 129.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 121.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 116.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 11c | 98.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed Yes | 11c | 98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…b4f4backed Yes | 13c | 90.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e21…66c0backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcff…ab9bbacked Yes | 14c | 77.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…4b98backed No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 73c | 26.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 18.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…a2a1backed No | 75c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 65°F or below on February 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.