Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ae3f0e78cd4b49ffd3c29b9305d2f639862a013517a37455c936b8b552f6d33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,658 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked No | 0c | 14,801$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…1543backed No | 0c | 6,698$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 74c | 4,003$2,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.29 | 20 | 100%20 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…c765backed Yes | 48c | 2,476$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 7c | 2,086$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.01 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked Yes | 69c | 1,621$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 66c | 1,279$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +113%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 72c | 949.3$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 10c | 637.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfc…7f6bbacked No | 3c | 571.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…cd57backed No | 4c | 568.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked No | 4c | 515.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…3bccbacked No | 3c | 488.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 53c | 400$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 6c | 362.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.26 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 77c | 279.8$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 41c | 202.63$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 58c | 202.43$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 199.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 46c | 198.13$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.23 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408c…dfa1backed Yes | 27c | 152.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +274.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed No | 15c | 136.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed No | 12c | 129.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +435.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…007bbacked Yes | 34c | 128.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 28c | 126.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +393%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed Yes | 28c | 107.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +258.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Yes | 48c | 106.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…b859backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 71c | 94.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed Yes | 77c | 92.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…696ebacked Yes | 69c | 90.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 42c | 83.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes | 20c | 80.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 71c | 77.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 19c | 72.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +438.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a7…8086backed Yes | 33c | 61.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +206%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked Yes | 80c | 59.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked No | 27c | 52.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8015…d168backed Yes | 27c | 49.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +265.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 59c | 43.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 42.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…c68bbacked No | 70c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…c9fabacked No | 64c | 31.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 76c | 30.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 46c | 25.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 18.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%?this page
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.2%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.3%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.4%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.5%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤2.1%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.