Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤2.1%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd822ccf5f9325363598c8a47bd8e1f7f5c4ee2bd05106317e1524cc16a3a9f95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 11c | 536.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…f97abacked Yes | 40c | 419$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…5570backed Yes | 44c | 288.23$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f56…5cd2backed No | 63c | 280.45$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…82b1backed No | 51c | 275.41$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…28b2backed No | 72c | 238.58$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…a05dbacked No | 64c | 117.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6863…76b0backed Yes | 47c | 116.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc229…2643backed No | 55c | 114$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 112.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 104.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 36c | 92.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 38c | 77.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 31c | 61.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…11f4backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed Yes | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…e5eabacked No | 49c | 42.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeedb…59e5backed No | 72c | 40.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…4a52backed Yes | 44c | 32.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…43edbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…9087backed Yes | 56c | 22.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d31…8ae2backed No | 69c | 21.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤2.1%?this page
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.2%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.3%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.4%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.5%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.