Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95fc5f3100ae4422ca0798bc97f9a6417b4cb1cf487f86d93b8677b090cafdf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $333,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,741 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae18…591cbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 0c | 33,190$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 0c | 23,672$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 60 | 5%3 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6577…4401backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…1543backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x673a…e805backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b5…c8a9backed Yes | 39c | 3,683$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 52c | 2,745$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 8c | 2,394$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.85 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 26c | 1,700$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 36c | 1,400$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +113%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 78c | 1,285$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 61c | 1,264$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,113$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 9c | 1,077$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.29 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 1c | 1,014$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed No | 67c | 618.58$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…c35bbacked Yes | 10c | 596.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 32c | 345.96$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 39c | 341.41$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 45c | 340.32$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 14c | 324$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…c9fabacked Yes | 50c | 318.43$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…fb6fbacked No | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 53c | 296.71$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed No | 6c | 261.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed No | 62c | 240$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +393%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 16c | 194.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.77 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 58c | 193.18$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c4…9c42backed Yes | 55c | 165$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes | 35c | 143.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…2930backed Yes | 63c | 117.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 115.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…e87abacked Yes | 50c | 80.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked No | 75c | 78.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 17c | 72.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…1376backed No | 28c | 65.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +252.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes | 29c | 50.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…9d7ebacked No | 66c | 49.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 80c | 38.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed No | 40c | 37.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…1244backed Yes | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 38c | 35.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 65c | 30.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 51c | 30.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a9…5976backed No | 45c | 26.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27f…61dabacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc751…8c79backed No | 80c | 12.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%?this page
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.2%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.3%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.4%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.5%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤2.1%?No won
- Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.