AI · resolved market
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea909a2ca90c2e3b115f5a0f8287d0ab7b58d1ce11c3222a33e8b19596907805
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $339,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $345,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked No | 1c | 31,361$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f5…5cacbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 79c | 16,705$13,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,491.53 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked No | 0c | 11,135$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…37b5backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed No | 1c | 8,791$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…ab45backed No | 18c | 5,626$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…9a89backed No | 10c | 5,462$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 20c | 5,000$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.29 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa4…52a5backed No | 8c | 4,581$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 7c | 4,142$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.03 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…6df8backed No | 7c | 4,011$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 9c | 3,892$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.37 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…a1c7backed No | 5c | 3,606$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed Yes | 69c | 3,014$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.95 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 12c | 2,900$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f5…e99bbacked No | 2c | 2,814$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 2c | 2,529$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 1c | 2,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 0c | 2,452$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 2c | 2,405$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 6c | 2,307$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 2,301$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 18c | 2,296$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.73 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed No | 1c | 2,250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 18c | 1,752$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -8.3wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -67%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…4ee4backed No | 3c | 1,719$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…db70backed No | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…4ec0backed No | 10c | 1,391$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 7c | 1,286$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 9c | 1,258$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 12c | 1,254$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.08 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 1,183$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.75 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…7501backed No | 2c | 1,107$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…737cbacked No | 1c | 1,068$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 19c | 1,065$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…dc88backed Yes | 33c | 1,060$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.29 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…9f3dbacked No | 1c | 1,002$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b2…1a2dbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…1c60backed No | 2c | 933.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…302dbacked Yes | 4c | 927.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +506.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 41c | 773.99$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 727.56$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d7…9679backed No | 7c | 699.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 686.43$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe61f…dd2dbacked No | 16c | 633.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked No | 16c | 626.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked No | 7c | 600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e9…97edbacked No | 18c | 559.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c3…a901backed No | 16c | 555.87$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 18c | 555.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 12c | 517.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…7c10backed No | 8c | 514.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…87f9backed No | 18c | 509.63$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450a…25abbacked No | 2c | 504.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 17c | 479.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 476.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 6c | 442.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98b…c7ffbacked No | 45c | 438.11$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 430.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5f62backed No | 9c | 405$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8aa…5942backed No | 13c | 395.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…1586backed No | 17c | 385.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7626…ed09backed No | 8c | 366.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 14c | 356$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 16c | 350$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…b2e2backed No | 23c | 349.85$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93a…081ebacked No | 7c | 347.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0aa…6818backed No | 19c | 336.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 12c | 328.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked No | 18c | 326.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…dc2bbacked No | 15c | 317.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd807…f489backed Yes | 22c | 303.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed No | 48c | 285.89$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked No | 18c | 285$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98eb…75a4backed No | 10c | 270.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 57c | 265.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.04 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 32c | 261.72$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c7…1432backed Yes | 80c | 250.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de7…1e31backed No | 23c | 244.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…d5dfbacked No | 9c | 241.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…8f22backed No | 8c | 234.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d92…7c66backed No | 35c | 229.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 6c | 213.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…9167backed No | 15c | 206.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…3d55backed No | 18c | 195.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 6c | 190.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 12c | 189.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7035…5ac2backed No | 9c | 185.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…a3f1backed Yes | 54c | 184.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 147.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…ad75backed No | 8c | 147.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…2b46backed No | 18c | 130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…0debbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…7f7bbacked Yes | 63c | 110.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 18c | 106.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026?this page
- Will Grok 4.20 be released before February 15, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 15, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 20, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 26, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 17, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 not be released by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.