TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,998
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,353

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,998 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c3a…020bbacked No72c20,081$14,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,622.693250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes28c17,123$4,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,733.2175142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes24c12,608$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,997.183,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked No72c10,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1a43…565fbacked Yes28c7,143$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-54.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4008752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No72c4,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.9933244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes28c3,773$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.281,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes27c3,605$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.3969851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes28c3,050$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8547111.3%8 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed No72c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8406459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Yes29c2,559$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.071833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa689…c42ebacked Yes29c2,156$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Yes28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5604835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ed…4ae2backed No73c1,968$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bdc…b5e9backed Yes11c1,402$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-62.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed Yes27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2706256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No72c999.98$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.8535856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes9c921.07$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.511,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ec…351fbacked Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-80.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked No72c800$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2248764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef9f…425ebacked No72c700$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1961090%9 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick75cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa62d…92e0backed Yes28c685.71$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1924920.4%10 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes28c599.79$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.9222829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes27c560.87$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1510128.7%29 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes28c560$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.5434342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed Yes27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1355554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes28c492.19$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.819746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed No72c420$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.622854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No72c420$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.615454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed No72c420$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.68864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8034…2463backed No72c416.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.673574.3%26 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No72c400$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11224258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d55…1e94backed Yes28c360$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.84219%8 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed No72c330$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.414355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed No72c319.99$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.612162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked No73c301.37$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.378363.9%53 W · 30 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed No72c300.86$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2413957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8416045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8419446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8415453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8411860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf56a…fe7cbacked No71c291.64$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.581250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked Yes28c227.05$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.572326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No73c202.86$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7744749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked No72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5610855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6aa…3746backed Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585836.2%21 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb15…5fefbacked Yes52c190.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No47c185.75$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.458224.4%20 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed No72c170$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.611458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed No72c170$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.613859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked No72c170$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.612458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca73…b02ebacked Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed No72c160$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.811563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe174…f74bbacked No71c150$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+186.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes23c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510946.8%51 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7f…3223backed No72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.893467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed No73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.996768.7%46 W · 21 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed No72c120$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.612259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked No72c120$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.612657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked No72c120$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.613254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed No72c120$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.69159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked No73c113.85$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.744463.6%28 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef65…f32fbacked No73c109.59$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.591978.9%15 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+39.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Yes28c105$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.453140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285957.6%34 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36c3…a901backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f65…cdd3backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282568%17 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadad…58bdbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7028…157cbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked No72c99.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad4…1bf2backed Yes28c90$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.21050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacba…9256backed No73c83.11$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.443548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked No72c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.45459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd03b…856cbacked No72c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.47057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6fe…c8c2backed No72c76.39$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.392161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed No72c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.611661.2%71 W · 45 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x514f…ee49backed No72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.441283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick67cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x228c…0fb0backed Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Yes29c67.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207834.6%27 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed No73c61.4$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.588939.3%35 W · 54 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked No72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.811360.2%68 W · 45 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked No72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.85461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed No72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.86464.1%41 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed No72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.85757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed No72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.811063.6%70 W · 40 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed No72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.89861.2%60 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2acd…0604backed Yes29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed No73c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7521450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No73c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7525855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed No71c49$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2111644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No72c46.43$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1311056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc587…1630backed No72c45.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.793868.4%26 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed No73c44.92$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.138253.7%44 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes28c42.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.