Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2a0a46550a38832cd4be1c2376c10b6808d27066251a5ae73f4a3cbddfada0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d75…c09fbacked No | 71c | 7,455$5,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,161.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No | 71c | 6,673$4,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.04 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 29c | 3,498$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.8 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 29c | 3,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 2,880$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 30c | 2,280$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.32 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 30c | 1,093$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…2667backed No | 72c | 999.99$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 29c | 835.51$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.3 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 29c | 800$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed No | 71c | 628$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.12 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 18c | 584.04$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…07a9backed Yes | 28c | 357$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 29c | 345$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56a…fe7cbacked Yes | 29c | 311.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 29c | 287$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.96 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2367…c5b3backed Yes | 20c | 218.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd093…4fc7backed Yes | 16c | 215.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…af9dbacked Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 12c | 175$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 78c | 120.04$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Yes | 30c | 106.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…7aaabacked No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…9256backed No | 71c | 99.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 29c | 88.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3848…776abacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 29c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 29c | 65.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1a2dbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-24?No won
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.