Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49f4f5e99bc76806bdce33713e6958a3a35c55405d909b9f546b2632d9ec55c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d66…928fbacked Yes | 10c | 7,797$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…5ae8backed Yes | 10c | 4,022$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…cacebacked Yes | 10c | 4,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 3,133$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.47 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…f927backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…9445backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed11…10bebacked Yes | 7c | 2,600$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e5…2418backed Yes | 11c | 2,578$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…0179backed Yes | 11c | 2,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb716…f61cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,300$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c2…82e8backed Yes | 8c | 2,165$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…ad00backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 11c | 1,877$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.67 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,732$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac7…5a6bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 8c | 1,414$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 16c | 1,309$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.97 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 7c | 1,019$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 722.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2191…628ebacked Yes | 14c | 670.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 6c | 583.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 15c | 541.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 5c | 524$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 13c | 444.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 12c | 415$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 41c | 291.02$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 4c | 263.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 28c | 261.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 18c | 260.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 6c | 260$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…38c0backed No | 49c | 250$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…0738backed Yes | 9c | 229.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 228.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 9c | 204.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca7…6082backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 190.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…6f86backed Yes | 52c | 176.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 144.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes | 14c | 136$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…1e16backed Yes | 23c | 129.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 122.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 23c | 119.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa70…1c50backed Yes | 15c | 102.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…cc69backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 13c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 14c | 99.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…8a82backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -56%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 14c | 89.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 83.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 18c | 80.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c8…c674backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 78.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 15c | 73.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed No | 58c | 63.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d9…72aabacked No | 43c | 57.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…3252backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 75c | 46.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…4c9bbacked Yes | 61c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 43c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 51c | 42.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 48c | 42.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf365…f5e3backed No | 44c | 42.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 47c | 21.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 48c | 21.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?this page
- Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?Yes won
- Will Liban Mohamed be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?No won
- Will Luz Escamilla be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.