Commodities · resolved market
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f5aba8a01eabd593862a49fdccec09185df0f455553d9b68842cf1ef7ebf153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6944…7275backed No | 2c | 5,592$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee6…6eb1backed No | 2c | 1,132$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 15c | 1,126$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.39 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 32c | 462.51$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.51 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 21cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 362.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…87c3backed Yes | 27c | 252.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 66c | 250$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7be…539fbacked No | 66c | 225$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 75c | 161.46$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 74c | 124.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 35c | 115.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 18c | 100.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…262dbacked No | 33c | 90.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 35c | 81.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce75…588abacked No | 16c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 78c | 78.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 77c | 64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 20c | 54.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…078bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 67c | 37.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…5449backed Yes | 35c | 36.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…1a76backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked No | 72c | 23.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12cd…fab2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?this page
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?No won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.