Commodities · resolved market
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x526ce3aa2f946f6b0d4d97a0928f585d3e8fe919accd5d04096f2abb7da3d141
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6944…7275backed No | 4c | 1,055$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 562.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 448.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 77c | 165.93$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 61c | 148.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…915bbacked No | 41c | 117.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 10c | 114.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 44c | 83.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x386c…8323backed Yes | 63c | 79.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 64c | 79.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 21cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 71.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked No | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0314…2f6dbacked Yes | 57c | 51.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 43cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 38c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 40c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…a6d1backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 15, 2026?this page
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?No won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.