Movies · resolved market
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be greater than 12m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb9b15b591d51f0cdeec7a818dd1eceb471ef7b1e2ba648addd9c18fd6e872e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 75c | 6,772$5,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,107.82 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 23c | 2,730$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.31 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 40c | 2,434$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.8 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 52c | 1,890$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.42 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 65c | 1,644$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.25 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 10c | 1,114$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.13 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 9c | 1,108$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.07 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 55c | 510.79$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.9 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed Yes | 23c | 510$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.68 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 37c | 455.3$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.72 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 50c | 443.72$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.39 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 29c | 294.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…7350backed Yes | 44c | 203.09$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4d…5ff1backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 26c | 169.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.36 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed Yes | 70c | 164.93$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked Yes | 13c | 152.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 150.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.93 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa46a…9763backed Yes | 24c | 136.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 23c | 130.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 26cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 118.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 106$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 62c | 104.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 59c | 100.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…7b89backed Yes | 69c | 93.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 83.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 37c | 83.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 15c | 67.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 74c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 59c | 54.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed Yes | 71c | 49.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 57c | 35.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes | 67c | 17.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be greater than 12m?this page
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.