Movies · resolved market
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe7c1780455bb6b94bf9e27dd14edec6a5ea0d7989e61f7072f35aa98e93731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa27…7f74backed Yes | 1c | 4,705$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 25c | 2,154$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.5 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 64c | 1,112$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.38 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 64c | 937$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.32 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 26c | 826$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.76 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 74c | 645$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.7 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 23c | 501.14$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed Yes | 36c | 501$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 36c | 363$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 63c | 249.96$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 64c | 249$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed Yes | 36c | 240$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 199.17$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…802abacked Yes | 36c | 192$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 74c | 159$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 66.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 50.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 59c | 50.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e57…6d5cbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?this page
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be greater than 12m?Yes won
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.