Movies · resolved market
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde7dbc3bc478a445a72825a91ef7c3081983882b05a7225460b9fe52460e9cc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 12,876$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…ad32backed Yes | 30c | 874$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 70c | 835$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 72c | 552.18$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.02 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed No | 74c | 316$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 26c | 316$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 25c | 220.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked No | 71c | 106$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed Yes | 29c | 106$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 25c | 89.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 80.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…ba97backed Yes | 38c | 53.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 75c | 41.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 79c | 27.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4d…5ff1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?this page
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be greater than 12m?Yes won
- Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.