Movies · resolved market
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee68bd4c58e7797f7ed6244c868f58a0fc0f4f5135942113489b45dcd4370c02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,175 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 53c | 10,378$5,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,897.08 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 47c | 8,000$3,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,777.47 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 42c | 5,674$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.5 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 49c | 4,696$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,404.41 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 0c | 3,689$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 29c | 3,660$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.04 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,130$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.69 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked Yes | 49c | 2,730$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 32c | 2,570$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.13 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,258$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.57 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,965$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.9 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 7c | 1,780$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,684$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed No | 48c | 1,384$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.77 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed No | 63c | 1,369$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 16c | 1,274$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.99 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,161$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.81 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 57c | 1,109$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.84 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 68c | 1,071$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.44 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 895$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 60c | 747.59$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.47 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 22c | 712.8$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.01 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 7c | 695$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes | 3c | 680.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 511.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 6c | 502.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…e29ebacked Yes | 10c | 502.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 36c | 450$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.47 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 30c | 447.17$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 410.52$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 399.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 78c | 383.74$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked No | 46c | 378.31$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.44 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 9c | 336.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 307.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 28c | 300$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed No | 34c | 262.19$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 259.05$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.87 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 25c | 242.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 55c | 240$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 79c | 233.1$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 28c | 232$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 59c | 212.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 56c | 202.06$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 13c | 199.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked No | 46c | 192.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 7c | 187.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 185.07$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed No | 78c | 183.57$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 10c | 156.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 149.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 137.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 47c | 119.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 56c | 113.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 49c | 113.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 44c | 102.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 34c | 102$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea67…554bbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 99.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 54c | 97.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 54c | 92.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…0af9backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0109…ecc3backed Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fc…7717backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 44c | 62.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…8a12backed No | 48c | 62.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…04fabacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…a71dbacked No | 37c | 51.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2098…c8aebacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…6b18backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 35c | 49.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked No | 35c | 48.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed Yes | 49c | 45.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba8…e4e4backed No | 55c | 41.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +190.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8d…9438backed No | 51c | 36.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…82a0backed Yes | 37c | 36.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee8…5229backed Yes | 58c | 34.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed No | 51c | 34.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 39c | 34.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a6…3e3ebacked No | 45c | 31.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 30.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…931abacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked No | 58c | 28.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3806…d265backed Yes | 46c | 28.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…42f8backed Yes | 49c | 28.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…1d27backed No | 48c | 23.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x603f…4557backed No | 57c | 21.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…94f7backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f3…5d04backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m?this page
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?No won
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?No won
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?Yes won
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.