TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,175 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5095…93eebacked No53c10,378$5,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,897.0829642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes47c8,000$3,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,777.4715059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes42c5,674$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,402.523639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No49c4,696$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,404.4126041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes0c3,689$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5516737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes29c3,660$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.0429423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes10c3,130$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.6912631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed19…cb5ebacked Yes49c2,730$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.321346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid+19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes32c2,570$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.1329735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes8c2,258$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5723321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes13c1,965$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.915149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes7c1,780$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.852817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes1c1,684$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed No48c1,384$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.774938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6395…6735backed No63c1,369$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.62556%14 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes16c1,274$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.995911.9%7 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes15c1,161$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8128524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes57c1,109$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.849434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked No68c1,071$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.4432739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes3c895$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.913735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes60c747.59$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.472722.2%6 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes22c712.8$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.016127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes7c695$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.22330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes3c680.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.222944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c511.33$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.221,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes6c502.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.63517.1%6 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dbf…e29ebacked Yes10c502.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1852123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes36c450$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.471020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-63.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes30c447.17$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.151435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No73c410.52$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.998752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c399.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.22781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No78c383.74$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.028332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked No46c378.31$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.447538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes9c336.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes20c307.42$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6848414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11728528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49f7…f566backed Yes28c300$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.95572.7%40 W · 15 L+10.8wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+47.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed No34c262.19$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No43c259.05$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8723130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1242…8dfebacked Yes5c250$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.44156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-76.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x450e…80aebacked Yes25c242.91$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.642937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No55c240$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.24139%16 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No79c233.1$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.11643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa009…ab48backed Yes28c232$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.263948.7%19 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No59c212.61$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5726431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01f…5499backed Yes56c202.06$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.895427.8%15 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16180%0 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes13c199.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1815054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked No46c192.38$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.963116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes7c187.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No75c185.07$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5816741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed No78c183.57$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0510544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes10c156.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.161231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes25c149.24$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0610827.8%30 W · 78 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No68c137.89$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.413333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No47c119.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2923041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes56c113.75$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.22933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No49c113.11$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.821656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No44c102.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4216453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked No34c102$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.323844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea67…554bbacked Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.33425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-60.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No79c99.66$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1520841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No54c97.6$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.92755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x11c8…be84backed Yes54c92.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.25650%28 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No59c80$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.214530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No73c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9213034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6a7…0af9backed No59c80$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.81080%8 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+102.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0109…ecc3backed Yes45c75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37fc…7717backed Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52825%7 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes44c62.95$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf626…8a12backed No48c62.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.872552%13 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc219…04fabacked No51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7687033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca6a…a71dbacked No37c51.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.752832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2098…c8aebacked Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.89475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95db…6b18backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.871050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked No35c49.09$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0910814.8%16 W · 92 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked No35c48.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.635042%21 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc999…ca09backed Yes49c45.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba8…e4e4backed No55c41.36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+190.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc6b…d720backed No54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8d…9438backed No51c36.84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.051540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8643…82a0backed Yes37c36.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.64520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee8…5229backed Yes58c34.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9400…4f20backed No51c34.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.781947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes39c34.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3111825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62a6…3e3ebacked No45c31.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No59c30.94$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8420850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555a…931abacked Yes66c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6b5…80eebacked No58c28.47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.961136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3806…d265backed Yes46c28.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf060…42f8backed Yes49c28.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c49…1d27backed No48c23.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.06366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x603f…4557backed No57c21.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc31a…94f7backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93f3…5d04backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.