TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$120,575
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,823

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,575 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes34c11,550$3,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,625.8615059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x59e4…c67bbacked No13c10,108$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.416330.2%19 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes32c9,911$3,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,708.562817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes33c5,094$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,419.5729642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No52c3,725$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.546639.4%26 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes17c3,150$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,623.862123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes37c3,031$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,909.3216737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No32c3,000$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.875518.2%10 W · 45 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes54c2,891$1,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.5732814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No58c1,948$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.33721.6%8 W · 29 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-69.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes16c1,894$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.4226041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No31c1,830$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.445911.9%7 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc639…c5a2backed Yes79c1,552$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.66933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes13c1,512$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.555311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes29c1,387$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.4729735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes76c1,314$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.853354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes46c1,237$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.4229423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes33c1,061$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.9428524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes35c974.33$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.673116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes63c932.2$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.2732739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes17c898.96$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.4712631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes40c895$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.5413735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes54c803.57$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+57.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes35c769.55$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.45333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6a7…0af9backed Yes14c699.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.331080%8 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+102.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes19c697.86$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.329434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5639…7246backed No37c697.15$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes59c689.42$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.382330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes27c595.57$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.5723639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x450e…80aebacked Yes30c577.78$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.152937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No14c530.66$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.41355.7%2 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes35c509.7$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.4315149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6395…6735backed Yes78c504.1$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.942556%14 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x19db…7636backed Yes55c470.71$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.295646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c9f…069fbacked No50c459.32$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes23c419.98$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.0826431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No42c382$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9316741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ef…f21dbacked No65c375.2$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No35c359.68$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7823041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11c8…be84backed Yes55c355.11$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.35650%28 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No5c345$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.72109.5%20 W · 190 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No69c341.07$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.188752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes33c333.12$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.4467232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked No15c313.07$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.447328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No55c299.99$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.71346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No23c288.67$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.683046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes16c285.25$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.331323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes65c284.6$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.862360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c22…444cbacked Yes66c257$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.511323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes60c250$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+65.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes53c233.15$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5214530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No54c230.22$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1714337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c217.41$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.0387033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x29b5…649dbacked Yes51c212.66$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.38933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed Yes30c201.17$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1712030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf00…0c1abacked No77c200$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.61010%1 W · 9 L-3.8wins-0.38per pick48cpaid-72.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked No22c200$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked No11c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.21250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes47c194.48$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.81020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-63.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x163f…c4b4backed No16c193$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes17c192.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.6315054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xed19…cb5ebacked Yes48c170.59$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.851346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid+19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No19c170$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.236028.3%17 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b1…b066backed Yes79c168.21$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes64c152$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.323847.4%18 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Yes52c150.61$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.964938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0978…3137backed No33c150.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No50c149.77$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3613333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No47c149.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2116015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xcaec…2694backed Yes13c148.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+644.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes23c139.21$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.192416.7%4 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes15c116.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1310827.8%30 W · 78 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed No78c116.11$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes61c113.49$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc4…a2ffbacked No30c108$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x148c…ee45backed Yes19c106.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.14450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+122.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x714e…beeebacked Yes17c105$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.152846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes38c104.94$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bef…9080backed No56c102.91$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes14c101.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.334623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae5…5bb2backed No27c101$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534139%16 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ec…5b29backed Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x938e…d242backed No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No49c96.31$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7219240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed No47c94.26$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.410544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes16c90$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.874626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No49c83.41$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.794847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37fc…7717backed Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602825%7 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc972…dcd9backed No14c75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.232378.3%18 W · 5 L+7.1wins+0.31per pick47cpaid+72.2%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No43c74.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.146127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No52c74.04$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.498351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed No35c73.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-71.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ef9…b12bbacked Yes24c70.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+108.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dc9…0b92backed Yes75c70.28$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick75cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5b…0037backed No59c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.41258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes26c65.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.327020%14 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes52c64.81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2320841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No63c64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.253228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.