Movies · resolved market
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46e5d04c4b4f7a08f294ff2c8300af18e154dad8cb4bd168e4bf5f630acdc528
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,646 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,796$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,752$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.06 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,279$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 603.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 38c | 594.68$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.14 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 542.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 5c | 526.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 5c | 425.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 58c | 340$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.52 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x473c…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 298.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 8c | 221.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…2c67backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed No | 73c | 186.37$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 22c | 136$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…ba97backed Yes | 11c | 133.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 128.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes | 22c | 94.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 23c | 89.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 61c | 85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 80.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 40c | 64.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed Yes | 41c | 63.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 27c | 50.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 36c | 44.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 67cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 35.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 66c | 19.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m?this page
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?No won
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?No won
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?Yes won
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.