TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,972

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,972 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes11c16,783$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,765.086330.2%19 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes27c5,246$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.192123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes38c5,144$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.1523321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes75c4,622$3,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,472.52817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes60c4,523$2,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,723.5112936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes40c4,320$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.0915059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes59c3,732$2,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,207.5316737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes2c3,425$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3932814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes19c2,756$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.829642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab18…467dbacked Yes0c2,724$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.073423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-42.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes34c2,071$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.0412631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes27c1,876$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.939434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6395…6735backed Yes74c1,858$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.122556%14 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes25c1,716$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.7514530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Yes14c1,713$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2454211.9%5 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes22c1,465$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.396639.4%26 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes60c1,100$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.52245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes19c1,050$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2528524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes21c1,034$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4426431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes52c893.37$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.4313735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes19c843.37$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9729735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes71c777.18$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.87538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes31c695$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.332330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49f7…f566backed Yes58c654.78$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.985572.7%40 W · 15 L+10.8wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+47.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes32c538.63$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3410544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No33c516$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.695750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+50.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3acc…973dbacked Yes67c516$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.69825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes24c451.68$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7915149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes12c369.87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.072718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes31c361.43$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9811633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes60c335.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes24c310.52$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.857020%14 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x450e…80aebacked Yes35c310.34$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.522937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed No75c304.99$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.115151%26 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.18per pick33cpaid+155.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes40c300$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11947328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes12c290.5$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2926041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes11c284.66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.615911.9%7 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes12c278.42$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.255311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed19…cb5ebacked Yes25c249.91$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.541346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid+19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes41c244.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.051435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b65…293ebacked Yes61c201.69$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19db…7636backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed Yes15c200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.61346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes59c199.08$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.223041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes57c189.07$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9120841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes45c187.45$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8823130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5639…7246backed Yes25c182.24$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes36c178.08$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.911020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-63.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes50c173.93$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.533228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes14c173.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-88.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No78c170$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.766028.3%17 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes51c163.07$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4616015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes76c160$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.281010%1 W · 9 L-3.8wins-0.38per pick48cpaid-72.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes32c155.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.811625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes55c140.18$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.97837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes10c125$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.33844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x938e…d242backed Yes30c124.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea9…6d52backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No68c95.59$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.91475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes17c94.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0329423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb5b…0037backed Yes77c88.94$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.491258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes60c87$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.213420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf884…0364backed Yes26c86.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.58742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd85…7427backed No75c86.19$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No24c85.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.72355.7%2 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No55c83.41$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.534847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c82.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6748414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c77…6747backed Yes20c81.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x148c…ee45backed Yes15c81.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+122.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes13c80$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.515054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes55c78.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3214337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes18c75.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.710827.8%30 W · 78 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa739…e31abacked No75c71.89$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.02955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…649dbacked Yes30c70.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.27933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeba2…315cbacked Yes47c70$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No66c69.85$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.081369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+33.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes16c64.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.191315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes47c63.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.831656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…b395backed Yes64c63.34$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.541741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c58.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0587033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes32c56.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.013619.4%7 W · 29 L-9.7wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-65.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x92c6…2bafbacked Yes71c52.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.84825%2 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-67.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa81a…7dfabacked Yes20c51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.372441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2148…d0a7backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.35425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-62.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7177…c45fbacked Yes34c49.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb834…e4c1backed Yes29c42.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No76c42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes45c40.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb34a…6e39backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5ec…ab2bbacked No76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes61c33.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.371968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes31c32.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1810814.8%16 W · 92 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Yes56c32.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.072759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes34c29.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.285042%21 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ff…98b4backed Yes36c27.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes44c27.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.894930.6%15 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900e…a4d3backed No52c25.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.37757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No62c25.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4513333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x27ba…b6ddbacked Yes75c22.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick77cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.