Movies · resolved market
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e2f46c94467925128da12923b71d7c4b36bf606b8729e7f932fe7a71993bfd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,972 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes | 11c | 16,783$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.08 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 27c | 5,246$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.19 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 38c | 5,144$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.15 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 75c | 4,622$3,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,472.5 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 60c | 4,523$2,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,723.51 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 40c | 4,320$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.09 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 59c | 3,732$2,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.53 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 3,425$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 19c | 2,756$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.8 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,724$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 34c | 2,071$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.04 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 27c | 1,876$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.93 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed Yes | 74c | 1,858$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.12 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 25c | 1,716$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.75 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 14c | 1,713$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 22c | 1,465$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.39 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes | 60c | 1,100$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 19c | 1,050$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.25 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 21c | 1,034$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.44 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 893.37$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.43 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 19c | 843.37$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.97 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 71c | 777.18$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.8 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 31c | 695$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.33 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 58c | 654.78$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.98 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 32c | 538.63$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.34 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 33c | 516$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.69 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked Yes | 67c | 516$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 24c | 451.68$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.79 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 369.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 31c | 361.43$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 60c | 335.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 24c | 310.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 35c | 310.34$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 75c | 304.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 300$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 12c | 290.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 11c | 284.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 278.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked Yes | 25c | 249.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 41c | 244.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…293ebacked Yes | 61c | 201.69$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 15c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 59c | 199.08$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.2 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 189.07$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 187.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5639…7246backed Yes | 25c | 182.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 36c | 178.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 50c | 173.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes | 14c | 173.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 78c | 170$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 51c | 163.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes | 76c | 160$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 48cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 32c | 155.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 55c | 140.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 10c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 30c | 124.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…6d52backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 68c | 95.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 17c | 94.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 77c | 88.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes | 60c | 87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Yes | 26c | 86.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…7427backed No | 75c | 86.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 24c | 85.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 55c | 83.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 82.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed Yes | 20c | 81.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148c…ee45backed Yes | 15c | 81.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 78.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 75.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 75c | 71.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…649dbacked Yes | 30c | 70.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba2…315cbacked Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 69.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 16c | 64.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 47c | 63.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 64c | 63.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 58.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 32c | 56.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -9.7wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x92c6…2bafbacked Yes | 71c | 52.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…7dfabacked Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…d0a7backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…c45fbacked Yes | 34c | 49.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb834…e4c1backed Yes | 29c | 42.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes | 45c | 40.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34a…6e39backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…ab2bbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 61c | 33.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 31c | 32.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 56c | 32.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 34c | 29.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…98b4backed Yes | 36c | 27.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 44c | 27.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 52c | 25.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 62c | 25.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ba…b6ddbacked Yes | 75c | 22.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 77cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?this page
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?No won
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?Yes won
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m?No won
- Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.