TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$437,062
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$411,197

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $437,062 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 334 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0097…4a1dbacked No11c49,830$5,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,593.871118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b9…03b8backed No2c39,250$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c21,642$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.47504%2 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff1…6930backed No3c21,047$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes73c18,024$13,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,781.0117751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes55c11,991$6,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,375.5629642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No12c11,900$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3961414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed No2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6779…2ff6backed No67c7,531$5,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,024.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked No2c7,337$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.13910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-48.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7bd…2a37backed No6c6,786$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9014…5b73backed No25c6,732$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed No0c6,233$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x606e…1fa6backed No1c5,860$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd723…25bfbacked No35c5,136$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No10c5,005$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.2511924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…5cb0backed No23c5,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bed…7574backed No5c4,374$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa46…45eebacked No5c4,185$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066d…07bcbacked No25c3,529$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.352020%4 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-69.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58a6…5570backed No2c3,303$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f81…86efbacked No5c3,269$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62da…326dbacked No1c3,067$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed No4c3,015$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15fc…fec7backed No3c2,973$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5db…5800backed No5c2,971$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78bd…6f69backed No5c2,685$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1144…b8c0backed No5c2,610$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…f0fbbacked No1c2,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No50c2,436$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb920…1b19backed No7c2,326$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d6…476bbacked No21c2,190$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878c…c12abacked No10c2,097$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No37c1,972$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.1950633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fe5…91aabacked No12c1,896$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x042a…b153backed No6c1,868$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x592d…dcaabacked No5c1,487$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a90…b99fbacked No15c1,468$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed No1c1,439$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.31450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes61c1,345$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.882360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed No37c1,344$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.562433.3%8 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9afe…062abacked Yes72c1,342$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.871030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ace…6069backed Yes70c1,331$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.954148.8%20 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb739…a47bbacked No7c1,295$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ad…a859backed Yes78c1,279$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28d6…e6afbacked No20c1,220$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc554…efffbacked No10c1,216$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00dc…d521backed Yes63c1,200$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4abe…37b7backed Yes68c1,155$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.081233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c2…13d2backed No9c1,154$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fce…0ccebacked No2c1,119$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeecb…a593backed No3c1,065$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No7c1,055$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-57.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3592…c68cbacked Yes80c1,011$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes59c999.99$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes35c940.98$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.647125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9da…9b5fbacked No9c918.93$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed No13c902.41$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x82d9…eaf8backed No11c883.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x805f…54a4backed No40c872.76$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6120…9b18backed No8c827.2$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa62a…f05bbacked No62c800.44$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1080…142abacked No11c787.47$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No24c776$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.857735.1%27 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd02e…6fa6backed No13c771.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7afb…61eabacked Yes69c762.88$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.89580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+69.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x217e…0c84backed No9c752.15$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe055…0f96backed No10c749.65$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4131…d591backed No2c700$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c97…fa05backed No25c693.14$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.73250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc3…7021backed No9c674.77$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ff…f058backed No4c671.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked No2c662.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.41185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfae3…5228backed No41c661.64$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.783925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+23.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No7c659.77$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe19c…6c2cbacked No15c613.83$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes60c610$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24410549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a89…bb33backed No4c555.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbf7…afa8backed Yes65c544.28$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf080…06e3backed No4c543.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8373…7b8ebacked No13c539.35$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x159e…050ebacked No40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006630.3%20 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5678…764dbacked No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x416b…bad6backed No2c499.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55523.6%13 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No53c488.07$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.247328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd185…0343backed No43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d4…8ad7backed No16c442.01$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e15…a0eebacked No14c440.84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1021…e648backed Yes55c436.92$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No4c429.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.241136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc460…e689backed No4c426.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…8220backed No24c422.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88da…15c6backed No41c404.39$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x548b…8390backed Yes51c400.01$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.12839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdf1…7195backed Yes65c394.25$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.54933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ab…d374backed No3c386.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ecd…d63fbacked No4c370$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd5f…38b9backed No41c365.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…439dbacked No14c359.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc89a…eb7cbacked Yes37c351.31$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+167.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.