TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,943
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,619

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,943 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes68c6,843$4,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,165.621020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3489…7935backed No70c6,820$4,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,807.62560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb783…1a78backed No78c5,285$4,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,097.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x876b…1703backed Yes32c4,857$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,288.546237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x633c…781fbacked Yes18c3,681$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,015.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+453.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes33c3,643$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,446.195343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked Yes26c3,390$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,501.091546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes29c2,051$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.6327536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x124a…3741backed Yes23c2,050$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.232532%8 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes25c1,999$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.283125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2bf…75b5backed No67c1,782$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5582…db8cbacked Yes31c1,664$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb23e…829abacked No77c1,500$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9da…aa1cbacked No65c1,480$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No28c1,386$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.7813422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed No73c1,308$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.04683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+37.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe72…9025backed No76c1,244$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.621457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes26c1,221$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.4436945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b62…5203backed No65c1,052$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.58933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ed…25a4backed No9c1,000$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+126.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes17c988.78$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.591421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No33c948.17$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.0817824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No23c868$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.645510.9%6 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes21c800$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63211425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No64c700$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44745738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x757d…6e3fbacked No70c652.59$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.6720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed No62c614.07$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.331442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed No64c575$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3681154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fc…42d2backed Yes39c561.34$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.843100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+109.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No63c501.72$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.758257.3%47 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5007…df2ebacked No78c490$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.331163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3183…c5ebbacked No73c483.81$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.942147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-4.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3607…c08bbacked Yes33c455.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.31475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+73.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7639…fee6backed Yes22c451.28$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+130.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked No76c450$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3428241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No30c400$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1198442.9%36 W · 48 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x270a…4246backed No63c400$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9a…f6e9backed No74c399.97$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.981250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x186c…0b2ebacked Yes45c354.51$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes38c333.79$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.794339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ea…3ce8backed Yes37c324.59$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.49683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+59%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No45c323.78$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5319818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked Yes33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2011921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-59.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed Yes17c299$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.172646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes34c297.41$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.7225122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7478…4003backed Yes37c297.11$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.114866.7%32 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x79bf…bcdfbacked Yes26c292.89$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes22c289.73$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.193414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes35c286.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.718746%40 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes35c269.17$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.8415047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No46c260.13$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.928933.7%30 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked No66c225.18$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.621442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes30c222.56$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.611,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e6…f21abacked No67c220.69$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c216.41$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.0572935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2440…6668backed Yes26c212.66$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+93.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed No73c204$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.51650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No77c202.46$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.943633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-38.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb477…673ebacked No67c201.49$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1353759.5%22 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick70cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x72d6…934bbacked Yes47c192.19$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…309cbacked Yes41c188.24$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.244427.3%12 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf565…8bffbacked Yes28c179.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d9…e296backed No60c171.66$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f2…6c8ebacked No67c170.46$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-66.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No62c160$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.26462.5%40 W · 24 L+0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes34c158.82$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.8220418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes26c156.44$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.928826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4b…f574backed No75c155.82$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.51758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5fa…7c51backed Yes31c150$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+64.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x945c…4171backed Yes57c136.84$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes36c135.89$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9314423.6%34 W · 110 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c71…c03abacked Yes34c135$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x914b…e406backed No75c133.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes36c131.88$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.48435.7%30 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb48…be6dbacked No60c131.69$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.646141%25 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ce…928fbacked No64c130$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b24…5fd6backed Yes36c126.43$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No57c123.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.925742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No65c122.56$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.639543.2%41 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked No60c119.87$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.012347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked Yes42c119.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.682516%4 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c70…a710backed Yes38c118.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcc…d287backed Yes36c113.07$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes28c105.64$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.33641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc86a…4d34backed Yes35c101.39$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+41.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb9a8…7df4backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked No78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781520%3 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-56.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xd7bb…1b01backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+136.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc015…92dabacked No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9010…d06fbacked Yes25c99.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.992025%5 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+14.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes36c99.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.55612.5%7 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e7…aad2backed No67c97.01$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0e3…b078backed Yes26c94.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+94.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb082…5138backed No73c94.06$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.66520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-73.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2dc0…991dbacked Yes54c92.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+127.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed No74c90.5$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.971241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed No23c90$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c86.7$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8129430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4095…2e31backed No74c86.1$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.29966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x423d…dd1cbacked No57c83.8$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.