Movies · resolved market
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 10 minutes long?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6f05d324b9c9acfdc7d4d9ae319e27cb6925f307a79d74974de5753d4a54636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 3c | 2,799$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed Yes | 74c | 793.29$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.36 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 11c | 641.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 7c | 521.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b4…d794backed No | 4c | 509.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 6c | 499.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 232 | 30.6%71 W · 161 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed No | 24c | 478.75$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +7.7wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 26c | 327$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -7.8wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 304.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 91 | 4.4%4 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 68c | 282.36$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 8c | 212.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 7c | 210.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0168…c5cabacked No | 34c | 176.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77a…5476backed No | 18c | 171.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 7c | 153.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…3d45backed Yes | 55c | 122$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 44c | 108$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -7.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…ef31backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…b31dbacked Yes | 72c | 61.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 76c | 50.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1f…8f78backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…f620backed Yes | 77c | 33.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe24…ca9cbacked Yes | 77c | 32.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 45c | 29.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4327…d594backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…fd45backed Yes | 77c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e3…de04backed Yes | 79c | 18.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked Yes | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 10 minutes long?this page
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 15 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 20 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 25 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 3 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long?No won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 5 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 60 minutes long?No won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 8 minutes long?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.