Movies · resolved market
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 25 minutes long?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04d15a31504d8d34bc68fefc9a4971805ca3f6c20b7ea3ef86bd8c7922edb292
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 0c | 10,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 7c | 3,529$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.73 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…0822backed Yes | 77c | 2,970$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.87 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.5wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 4c | 1,687$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 4c | 1,229$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked No | 15c | 991.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 874.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 215 | 9.3%20 W · 195 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked No | 14c | 799.02$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…c41bbacked No | 2c | 761.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 4c | 729.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 131 | 23.7%31 W · 100 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 10c | 524.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…6900backed Yes | 41c | 521.46$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 19c | 503.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 4c | 498.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9c…9a65backed Yes | 59c | 414.92$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed No | 35c | 399.88$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…9781backed No | 10c | 392.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 4c | 366.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 74c | 360.36$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 120 | 30.8%37 W · 83 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 45c | 353.95$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 20c | 317.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 39c | 313.04$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 42c | 303.21$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9312…a285backed No | 13c | 287.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd39e…567fbacked No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66dc…308fbacked No | 13c | 244.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked No | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5671…c6ecbacked No | 20c | 197$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10c…41cabacked No | 24c | 187.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 70c | 183.49$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +7.7wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 50c | 169.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0851…e119backed No | 9c | 166.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 19c | 92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba9…2210backed No | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…0a38backed No | 49c | 79.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8399…016bbacked No | 65c | 76.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad4…83b8backed No | 39c | 76.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 61c | 75.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 235 | 30.6%72 W · 163 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 44c | 65.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 509 | 33.2%169 W · 340 L | -31.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e48…1bf2backed No | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 58.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,223 | 17.8%218 W · 1,005 L | -125.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 59c | 49.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 42c | 48.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 38c | 46.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…28d4backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 74c | 38.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -7.8wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 66c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa536…97fbbacked No | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed Yes | 71c | 38.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 36c | 36.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 70c | 34.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 51c | 34.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…fe0bbacked Yes | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6895…c696backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…ef31backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6706…2341backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -7.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 25 minutes long?this page
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 10 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 15 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 20 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 3 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long?No won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 5 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 60 minutes long?No won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 8 minutes long?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.