Movies · resolved market
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 20 minutes long?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbd449ac8995e8dfaa9d5870ace537f6e5306c8f1eb3677b3a2894361d7eaf10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3089…92f6backed No | 10c | 1,748$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 71c | 973.66$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 196 | 40.3%79 W · 117 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…5ac8backed No | 25c | 894.73$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…b608backed No | 18c | 694.4$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd39e…567fbacked No | 6c | 487.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad4…83b8backed No | 12c | 418.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…741cbacked No | 9c | 349$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 18c | 312.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa10c…41cabacked No | 10c | 255.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 12c | 219.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 131 | 23.7%31 W · 100 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 9c | 209.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked No | 19c | 199.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 16c | 193$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 55c | 173$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 40c | 170$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 126$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 39c | 121.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -7.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 113.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 368 | 38.3%141 W · 227 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 77c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c01…3cd8backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…e149backed Yes | 78c | 98.41$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 18c | 97.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 57c | 89.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad6…1ab0backed No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…2e8fbacked No | 18c | 77.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 62c | 73.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6670…9967backed No | 38c | 73.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 16c | 69.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 120 | 30.8%37 W · 83 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 80c | 60.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 48c | 60.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 26c | 56.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 31c | 55.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…a91ebacked No | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 509 | 33.2%169 W · 340 L | -31.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 78c | 26.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef0…e28ebacked No | 52c | 20.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf45…fb80backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87db…e21ebacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 20 minutes long?this page
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 10 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 15 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 25 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 3 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long?No won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 5 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 60 minutes long?No won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 8 minutes long?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.