Movies · resolved market
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 15 minutes long?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20eb4a03ed98d44fa6d961c88304150a2ea9bb18d5813823f1f7e54694226471
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cfa…b608backed No | 10c | 2,534$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c7…c1cebacked No | 13c | 1,179$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed No | 6c | 1,102$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed No | 20c | 673.78$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 13c | 525.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 14c | 499.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 74c | 428.86$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 6c | 424.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 18c | 327.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 235 | 30.6%72 W · 163 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed No | 16c | 322.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +7.7wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x66dc…308fbacked No | 18c | 268.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 263.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 131 | 23.7%31 W · 100 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8399…016bbacked No | 24c | 192.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaff…e3adbacked Yes | 72c | 190$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 16c | 147.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263a…f5aabacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 19c | 120.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 120 | 30.8%37 W · 83 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 28c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…0c84backed No | 17c | 116.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…73d0backed No | 18c | 112.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 111.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…d6cbbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaded…4c35backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…95babacked No | 17c | 99.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 19c | 74.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed No | 18c | 60.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…3f18backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 26c | 56.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 509 | 33.2%169 W · 340 L | -31.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2932…3ae8backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 29c | 44.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e5…e017backed Yes | 80c | 37.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 56cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d9…ff14backed Yes | 80c | 18.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 74c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 15 minutes long?this page
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 10 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 20 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 25 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 3 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long?No won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 5 minutes long?Yes won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 60 minutes long?No won
- Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 8 minutes long?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.