Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fe111894949f0e3007c5220be03d9f2f98d3eca39ad0adc1f35ed36bcf26e28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 11,863$8,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,484.58 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 31c | 5,622$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.81 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes | 10c | 5,434$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 22c | 5,252$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.34 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…46e6backed No | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 26c | 4,694$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.59 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 23c | 4,134$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.16 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed Yes | 39c | 4,012$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.44 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 71c | 3,507$2,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.49 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b87…3e8dbacked No | 72c | 3,400$2,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 28c | 3,298$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.57 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed Yes | 31c | 2,710$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.59 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 2,549$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.93 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 65c | 2,097$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 18c | 1,740$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…4527backed Yes | 9c | 1,709$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,694$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.1 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6089…5acbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 1,488$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.89 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 36c | 1,378$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.05 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa037…2fb3backed Yes | 36c | 1,309$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.09 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +274.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 60c | 1,209$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.58 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 53c | 1,183$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.48 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…3239backed Yes | 34c | 1,160$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.1 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 76c | 1,134$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.45 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 928.61$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.64 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 20c | 832.86$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.67 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 3c | 800.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 20c | 785.14$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.56 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 78c | 765.62$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.62 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 720.51$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.5 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 71c | 700.14$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.14 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 70c | 700$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…891bbacked Yes | 30c | 677.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked Yes | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…1507backed No | 67c | 597$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…c9b7backed Yes | 36c | 594.83$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 28c | 550$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes | 12c | 512.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 23c | 507.83$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 65c | 507.09$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.48 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 506.7$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.57 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 22c | 483.9$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9135…fd1fbacked Yes | 9c | 441.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked No | 64c | 438.23$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.79 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 36c | 418.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 15c | 413.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Yes | 25c | 400.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed Yes | 25c | 399.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 3c | 395.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 38c | 380.05$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.46 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 47c | 375.85$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.2 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x586f…b928backed No | 66c | 367.45$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…d490backed Yes | 10c | 364.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +861.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed No | 75c | 351.11$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce2…de8bbacked Yes | 30c | 346.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 29c | 342.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 36c | 329.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 35c | 322.31$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…c177backed Yes | 34c | 320.22$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…8413backed No | 72c | 319.81$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc70…d51fbacked Yes | 62c | 313.05$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 23c | 307.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 38c | 302$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.78 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 38c | 289.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x779d…2cddbacked Yes | 20c | 280.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75e…9d71backed Yes | 39c | 277.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 60c | 275$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.35 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 62c | 241.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +5.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…03cfbacked Yes | 39c | 221.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…523dbacked No | 53c | 214.27$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419e…aa93backed Yes | 10c | 208.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81f…ace4backed Yes | 35c | 205.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…d359backed Yes | 42c | 204.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 37c | 201.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…f9c0backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85e4…5c33backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 70cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 60c | 199$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…809cbacked No | 46c | 198.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 197.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 64c | 193.34$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…b4a7backed Yes | 35c | 191$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…ea6fbacked Yes | 39c | 189.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 25c | 175.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 31c | 172$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ed…7ee9backed Yes | 26c | 168.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb404…5bafbacked No | 67c | 160.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 31c | 156.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb5…4d50backed Yes | 43c | 155.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 34c | 154.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…d8eabacked Yes | 32c | 154.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 63c | 153.12$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 38c | 152.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…7fb5backed Yes | 14c | 151.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…a301backed Yes | 27c | 149.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +13.2wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 in July?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in July?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,300 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.