Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0b574c63786afbbe3c4cf04b813a21e9303338e849e84ca9401844986751a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 8c | 7,474$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.03 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed Yes | 2c | 6,936$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 4,457$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.66 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,285$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 1cpaid | +666.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 10c | 2,614$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.57 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,589$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 14c | 2,158$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.2 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Yes | 16c | 2,100$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,869$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…c9b7backed No | 68c | 1,686$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,630$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…c0efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,533$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b6…b99abacked Yes | 10c | 1,448$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +231.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 6c | 1,371$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 31c | 1,344$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.91 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b1…01e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,142$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…486fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,072$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…93e8backed Yes | 2c | 1,003$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…5875backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 13c | 931.88$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 5c | 929.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 34c | 627.67$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.9 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…c506backed Yes | 18c | 527.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d71…d427backed No | 79c | 505.62$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…0a2ebacked Yes | 10c | 504.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 64c | 500$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.8 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 10c | 500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…9722backed Yes | 17c | 499.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 19c | 468.28$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 437$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028c…bc32backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 76c | 396.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +5.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 16c | 370$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 3c | 346.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +123%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 12c | 307.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb1…5a16backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 292.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…698bbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…9d62backed Yes | 17c | 230.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 230.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 9c | 222.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbadd…7518backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +233%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…e62bbacked No | 77c | 171.25$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 79c | 164.84$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa989…3d12backed Yes | 20c | 159.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a7…2995backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa993…17eebacked No | 77c | 143.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fa…acecbacked No | 71c | 140.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 70cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 132.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…33b5backed No | 73c | 122.66$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed No | 66c | 119.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 25c | 97.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 33c | 72.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed Yes | 14c | 71.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134e…d718backed No | 70c | 71.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 64c | 46.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…9573backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…19a4backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…ad02backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf52a…e276backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…53e9backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…c0aebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 in July?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in July?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,300 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.