Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41bfaa8f94e9eb7015ea7a336431c42771d8f33fa94b43bee27760a39cf36671
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 15c | 13,388$2,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.6 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 15c | 8,098$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.79 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa556…5c0ebacked Yes | 14c | 5,962$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 12c | 4,474$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.51 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 6c | 4,448$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.79 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d31…53febacked Yes | 17c | 3,927$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9135…fd1fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,795$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 13c | 3,632$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.43 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 13c | 3,175$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.13 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…3239backed Yes | 26c | 2,810$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.94 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 2,679$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 2,552$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…2ab8backed Yes | 7c | 2,359$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…17f7backed Yes | 4c | 2,252$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,159$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 1,880$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…c11abacked Yes | 11c | 1,859$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.95 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…18eebacked Yes | 11c | 1,658$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.48per pick | 14cpaid | +456.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 1,502$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,266$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.49 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…c9b7backed Yes | 16c | 1,189$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,184$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed Yes | 13c | 1,050$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.46 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…5875backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 2c | 923.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 900$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6089…5acbbacked Yes | 7c | 898.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 18c | 883.64$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.9 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 15c | 871.64$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 12c | 841.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 14c | 840.49$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 7c | 804.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 14c | 799.01$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 772.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 1cpaid | +666.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 10c | 770.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…c177backed Yes | 16c | 765.54$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…d490backed Yes | 2c | 729.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +861.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 3c | 701.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaf…3f34backed Yes | 3c | 635.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 16c | 615.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 63c | 600$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…a7e9backed Yes | 2c | 565.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 76c | 494.72$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Yes | 14c | 482.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 16c | 456.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a40…2897backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Yes | 15c | 399.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 9c | 378.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb81f…ace4backed Yes | 13c | 368.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 13c | 365.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 286$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 26c | 275.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 17c | 254.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed Yes | 11c | 234.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 18c | 220$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…9d62backed Yes | 17c | 209.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa32f…28bcbacked Yes | 16c | 191$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed Yes | 11c | 178.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…9c25backed Yes | 15c | 163.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 16c | 146.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ce…fd49backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 129.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…ec11backed Yes | 13c | 128.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…893abacked Yes | 15c | 126.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…ad02backed Yes | 16c | 125.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 26c | 115.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd97…b01ebacked No | 80c | 113.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ca…60aebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6da…3699backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073d…b94bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ed…7ee9backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…a980backed Yes | 20c | 97.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 20c | 81.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd81…bb2ebacked Yes | 25c | 81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 12c | 80.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134e…d718backed No | 63c | 79.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…33b5backed Yes | 24c | 61.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde15…d3c4backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…bb09backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb8…1fe9backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9181…64acbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586f…b928backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 in July?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in July?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,300 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.