Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd594a2ffc64cd6e69b18325e04427d2548c1b6e864f419fe0ad1d0d2e4dd4095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b3a…d490backed Yes | 2c | 7,101$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +861.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 7c | 5,258$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.98 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,520$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 4c | 2,664$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…0a2ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,111$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…2ab8backed Yes | 3c | 1,758$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…a799backed Yes | 20c | 1,440$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…c9b7backed No | 80c | 1,328$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…c0efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,284$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…486fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,224$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked Yes | 8c | 1,099$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…5875backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 5c | 916.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1694…8badbacked Yes | 14c | 892.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 14c | 884.12$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.69 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd2…d71dbacked Yes | 1c | 800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 736.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5654…a5d5backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 579.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded3…b838backed Yes | 10c | 485$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 387$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b6…b99abacked Yes | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +231.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked Yes | 18c | 299.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9c…00a6backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…638dbacked Yes | 8c | 212.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…9722backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…9d62backed Yes | 16c | 192.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…698bbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 21c | 144.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 11c | 144.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…d717backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 in July?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in July?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,300 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.