Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1db1cc616c475e747cab966517066d36dadcf1ba71d3b740379f610a7a09e059
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $189,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,191$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…5962backed Yes | 18c | 15,975$2,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,904.61 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 7c | 12,426$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.29 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…c9b7backed No | 59c | 9,453$5,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,888.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 4,500$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.37 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,389$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 1cpaid | +666.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…1284backed Yes | 48c | 3,144$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.42 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 69cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c9…bac8backed Yes | 3c | 2,425$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 2,204$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.57 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 2,052$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,715$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…de01backed Yes | 4c | 1,510$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,494$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…d490backed Yes | 2c | 1,387$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +861.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 16c | 1,383$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.1 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…809cbacked No | 64c | 1,343$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…93e8backed Yes | 7c | 1,340$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 27c | 1,262$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.86 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 24c | 1,231$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.05 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 6c | 1,209$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +123%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,145$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…9d62backed Yes | 26c | 1,093$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 1,069$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…7d32backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 38c | 724.53$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.32 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…a0eebacked No | 62c | 724.35$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 620.19$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.21 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518a…71b3backed Yes | 18c | 575.19$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2009…678cbacked Yes | 18c | 556.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +184.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 34c | 513.55$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.94 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd133…ef27backed Yes | 16c | 492.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed No | 60c | 466.88$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 5c | 435.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…e28dbacked Yes | 4c | 417.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…c0efbacked Yes | 4c | 400.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 5c | 389.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 24c | 387$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 33c | 362$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.16 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed Yes | 18c | 358.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…9c25backed Yes | 7c | 350$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 323.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 9c | 305$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…d47cbacked Yes | 30c | 302.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…6d1ebacked Yes | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes | 9c | 289.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee42…64a2backed Yes | 17c | 285.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce18…3c84backed Yes | 6c | 276.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…d0eabacked No | 55c | 274.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.64 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 69c | 254.42$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…1e46backed No | 60c | 254.17$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 66c | 246$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa989…3d12backed Yes | 39c | 244.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 48c | 231.84$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 10c | 230$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6423…8317backed Yes | 9c | 229.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +370.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 210.45$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…7fb5backed Yes | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7901…5575backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 25c | 194.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 60c | 165.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 61c | 164.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…bda7backed No | 34c | 161.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +94%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52a7…2995backed No | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0d3ebacked No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…698bbacked Yes | 67c | 149.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…a301backed Yes | 10c | 149.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +13.2wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 17c | 147.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 63c | 144.43$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 16c | 137.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 39c | 134.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…4e96backed Yes | 19c | 126.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 39c | 123.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 32c | 120$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…33b5backed Yes | 25c | 106.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…5112backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134e…d718backed No | 66c | 102.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked No | 34c | 100.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda25…abafbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…5875backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…d168backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…03cfbacked Yes | 39c | 97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 34c | 92.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 39c | 92.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…0888backed No | 64c | 88.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 in July?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in July?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,300 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.