Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ac758686a4d5f9fda828037b67ef6de802f4cf1551f4aa88524797aef8109e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 16c | 3,621$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.05 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +13.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 12c | 1,269$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.31 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 2c | 1,210$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…1284backed Yes | 58c | 1,037$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.99 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 69cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed No | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed No | 14c | 499.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 77c | 458.47$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…6d06backed No | 8c | 321.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 4c | 279.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 17c | 277$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 6c | 258.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…5145backed Yes | 79c | 254.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3210…ce2cbacked No | 8c | 190.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 7c | 181.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed No | 17c | 162.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4025…a309backed No | 51c | 131.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdba…3b6fbacked Yes | 78c | 127.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…893abacked No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…03cfbacked No | 17c | 123.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 76c | 110.73$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…ad02backed No | 16c | 102.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 78.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 73.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 78c | 13.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in July?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 in July?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,300 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.