Weather · resolved market
NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8058955fc8958fc529b5f3b17f0c665aedae586a9f78f9c361c380c1410ecaaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 12c | 1,206$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 26c | 1,110$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.68 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…623fbacked No | 10c | 790$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed No | 4c | 750$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 30c | 650.46$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 71c | 615.98$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.89 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 13c | 573.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 63c | 538$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.66 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 5c | 401.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6565…c235backed No | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked No | 5c | 347$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed No | 3c | 335.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 11c | 280.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 36c | 234$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…f231backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 29c | 135$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…980fbacked No | 36c | 131.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…3250backed No | 35c | 104.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 27c | 101.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5653…5d7fbacked No | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 29c | 79.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 32c | 60.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked No | 29c | 57.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…cc44backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcafb…a4e4backed Yes | 67c | 18.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by July 19?this page
- NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by July 18?No won
- NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by July 20?Yes won
- NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by July 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.