Commodities · resolved market
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5718c98a675a2f8c70dab199db5bb86c77c67371ea3cda72c4d4a3541ed1da14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b48…21b2backed Yes | 74c | 5,047$3,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +676.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 35c | 2,269$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 26c | 1,868$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.93 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 63c | 1,637$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.73 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 27c | 1,487$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 31c | 1,130$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.41 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…309bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,017$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 64c | 1,002$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.73 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 31c | 984.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.27 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 36c | 650$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed Yes | 63c | 624.99$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 529.46$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.69 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed No | 44c | 460$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 72c | 458.69$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.43 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf633…c684backed Yes | 66c | 455$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…0456backed Yes | 44c | 420.8$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 26c | 313.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 275.78$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 27c | 255.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 227.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 25c | 223.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 209$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 77c | 199.95$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa73…d943backed No | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 155.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 152.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 52c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 43c | 148$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 43c | 148$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 43c | 146.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 140.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 29c | 132.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…ee29backed Yes | 57c | 130$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +422.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 77c | 120.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 72c | 114.66$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 23c | 108.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 35c | 103.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 29c | 101.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…f5e1backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +1,004.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…a079backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 40c | 96.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 64c | 96.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 31c | 91.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 27c | 89.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 40c | 82.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 36c | 82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 44c | 80.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…02eabacked No | 28c | 79.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 32c | 79.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 29c | 77.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 46c | 72.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 26c | 72.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 37c | 68.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 63.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 35c | 63.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 61.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcb…3103backed No | 40c | 61.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…eec3backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…496bbacked No | 37c | 59.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 30c | 57.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 68c | 51.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8569…2267backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…1a49backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 31c | 49.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 46.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 52c | 42.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…aa50backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 26c | 39.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf426…f40fbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed Yes | 75c | 35.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 50c | 34.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd51…6a52backed Yes | 47c | 33.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Yes | 73c | 31.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b25…c15abacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…ddc3backed No | 57c | 28.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 74c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e48…1bf2backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…b86fbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e25…afd6backed Yes | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…c267backed Yes | 65c | 22.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 57c | 21.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31f2…f75fbacked Yes | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +279.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?this page
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.